For those of you who won’t take my word for it, the triangle Multiple Listing Service released their Local Market Update for the counties that make up the Triangle. Here’s the links to individual counties;

• The Triangle as a whole
• Durham County
• Chatham County
• Wake County
• Orange County

The Cliff’s Notes version? November 2009 figures are vastly improved [in some cases double] compared to the same numbers from November 2008. The original $8,000 tax credit, however, expired in November and that really drove sales. The Year to Date numbers for 2009 are fairly similar or slightly worse than the 2008 numbers in most counties.

November originally was the end of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. Did the approaching deadline [which was moved to April 30] spur sales during the month of November? Let’s see what the numbers say.

For all of Durham County there were 1819 houses listed at the end of November. 231 sales closed in November, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 7.8 months. There was 8.2 months of inventory at the end of October, so it appears that overall Durham market has stabilized a bit.

For the 27713 area code there were 322 homes listed at the end of November. 64 homes sold during November, so the current listings would be sold through in 5.0 months. This is an improvement of 1.3 months of inventory compared to October’s numbers and moves South Durham into the  buyer’s market column again. We’ll have to see how long it can stay there.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

As you can see the improvement in sales was across the board. Even Woodcroft got into the act — finally posting the recovery I predicted two months ago

What’s in the crystal ball for December? I expect the numbers to decline a bit for several reasons. First of all, the extension of the Federal tax credit means many people will not be thinking of house shopping until well after the New Year. Secondly, the Christmas holiday means there are fewer business days in December. Fewer business days equals fewer closings. So I expect a big drop in December, a slight recovery in January and continued improvement going into 2010. Durham has always been a market that showed slow and steady improvements – I’m pretty sure that won’t change now.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on December 1 at about 7:00 AM]

I’ve talked to several real estate brokers over the past month who have observed a market stall during October — fewer showings, fewer offers and generally less excitement about the market. Do the numbers support their observations? Let’s take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 1871 houses listed at the end of October. 228 sales closed in October, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 8.2 months. This is a drop of 1.6 months of inventory, which brings us back to the level we were at in August. Not the glory days we had in June/July, but
still some good solid numbers.

For the 27713 area code there were 344 homes listed at the end of October. 55 homes sold during October, so the current listings would be sold through in 6.3 months. Again, this pulls us back to the levels we were seeing in August, and makes the South Durham market fairly balanced. Can we get back to the brief seller’s market of the summer? Probably not this year, as sales during November/December are traditionally slow. Staying here, however, would be pretty good.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

Again, once you get past the top 3 developments, sales are spread out greatly with 32 subdivisions reporting at least one sale in October. Woodcroft, which was a shining star for much of the year, is stubbornly stuck in the 7s [I
had expected it to drop towards the 5s two months ago]. This also is the second month in a row that no sales were recorded in Colvard Farms.

As of today, the $8,000 first time homebuyers’ credit is set to expire on November 30. To take advantage under the current rules, almost all buyers would already have a home under contract. This would imply that November sales would be strong. Pending sales figures seem to support this, but we will see how many of those pending sales close in November. There is also news about an extension of the credit, but that is for another post.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on November 1 at about 9:00 AM]

Normally, the housing market starts to slow down when school starts in the
fall. Will that cycle repeat itself in 2009, or will the $8,000 tax credit
continue to drive the market? Let’s take a look at the numbers for September

For all of Durham County there were 1950 houses listed at the end of
September. 199 sales closed in August, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 9.8 months. This is another step backwards from the previous three months, which have seen us move from a six-month supply of homes to almost ten months. Again, the decline is driven almost entirely by a 10+% drop in the number of homes sold in September.

For the 27713 area code there were 351 homes listed at the end of September. 43 homes sold during September [a drop of almost 20% from August], so the current listings would be sold through in 8.2 months. This means the adsorption rate has almost doubled from the numbers we had in June/July. It does, however, still show that strength that South Durham has in leading the general Durham real estate market

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

This month’s sales figures were much more spread out than in many pervious months with thirty different communities recording at least on sale in September. And Woodcroft did not come back like I predicted last month.

The question is still the same one I asked in the first paragraph. Will the
$8,000 tax credit, which expires in just 60 days, be enough to overcome the tag team of mortgage issues and the end-of-year slump. We’ll see in 30 days.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on
September 30 at about 10:30 PM]

The Triangle Multiple Listing Service has released their market analysis for August. Their data shows what we all expect — the number of sales is down, homes are taking a bit longer to sell, but when they do the average price is steady or even improving slightly. To take a look at the numbers yourself, just click here

Last month’s housing data showed a strong increase in the health of the
Durham housing market. Will the numbers for June hang on to those gains? Let’s
take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 1994 houses listed at the end of June. 288
sales closed in June, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be
sold in 6.9 months. This is an small downtick from June’s adsorption tare of 6.2 months. It is still, however, a very strong showing for the county for the second month in a row.

For the 27713 area code there were 400 homes listed at the end of
June. 83 homes sold during June, so the current listings would be sold through
in 4.8 months. This is again a small softening of the market — last month’s number was 3.95 months — but again puts our little corner of Durham strongly in the realm of a seller’s market.

It’s worth noting that listings and sales declined this month compared to June. Listings declined slightly less than sales, which is why adsorption rates are slightly higher. Still it is another month of strength for the Durham market.

Let’s take a look at some individual communities

All of these communities still show strength as the overall housing market recovers.

Last month’s housing data showed a strong increase in the health of the
Durham housing market. Will the numbers for June hang on to those gains? Let’s
take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 2046 houses listed at the end of June. 328
sales closed in June, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be
sold in 6.2 months. This is an  improvement of 2.1 months building
on May’s improvement of 3.5 months. In fact, this would almost make Durham
County a seller’s market if that strength held up for any length of time.

For the 27713 area code there were 427 homes listed at the end of
June. 108 homes sold during June, so the current listings would be sold through
in just under four months. This is another significant improvement from
last month and a marked improvement from Aprils 12 month absorption rate.

Like last month, these improvements are largely driven by increases in the
number of homes that are sold without a similar increase in the number of listed
homes. Still, two months of solid sales in both the county as a whole and in
south Durham can lead one to believe that our market is recovering.

Let’s take a look at some individual communities

All of these communities showed strong improvements over last month’s
numbers, and currently appear to be in a seller’s market — most of them
for the second month in a row.

It’s that time of month again, and the news this month looks a lot better than the last couple of months. Let’s dive right in. As always, data was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service at about 10:30PM last night.

In Durham County there were 2,107 available listings at the end of May. 261 sales were completed in May meaning the current home inventory would be sold in 8.1 months. This is an improvement of 3.5 months, which makes the improvement over the last three months a whopping 6.8 months. Anything between 6 and 8 months is normally considered a balanced market, so the county market as a whole is vastly improving

For the 27713 zip code there were 464 homes available on May 31. 73 sales were completed in May leaving 6.4 months of inventory available. This is half the inventory available last month.

In both cases it is worth noting that the improvement is driven by large increases in the number of closings. That is to be expected. Normally, however, the rise in closings is accompanied by a rise in listings, so things are close to balancing out. I’m certainly not complaining.

Now let’s take a look at our favorite communities

• Hope Valley Farms continued to be the sales leader with 16 closings in May – more than double April’s 7 closings. There are 60 homes available [up 1 from April], making the absorption rate 3.8 months. That is normally a seller’s market. The average sales price for homes sold in Hope Valley Farms is just over $214,000.
• By raw sales numbers, second place goes to Woodcroft. 13 homes sold in Woodcroft last month for an average price of just under $135,000. With 65 listings currently active, that makes the absorption rate 5.0 months, again a seller’s market in Woodcroft
• Woodlake had another strong month with three sales closing in May for an average price of just under $214,000. 14 homes are currently available meaning there is 4.7 months of inventory. I said that last months 3.4 months of inventory might have been a fluke — I may have been wrong.
• Parkwood had 3 home sales close in May. 27 homes were for sale at the end of May at an average price of just under $135,000. This makes the absorption rate 9.0 months. While this is still a sellers market, the numbers are much better than April’s 1 sale and 24 listings
• Penrith also had 3 sales in May with an average price of $163,500. Penrith had 6 listings available at the end of May for an absorption rate of 2.0 months

To be fair, this is only one month of good news for many communities [except for Woodlake, which shows a lot of resiliency]. Still, I have to admit it was fun to write seller’s market as many times as I did, and I skipped a couple of opportunities. With the continued availability of the $8,000 tax credit, I expect to see continued strength in the “starter home” communities such as Penrith, Parkwood and parts of Woodcroft through out the summer. It’s too early to say we’ve turned a corner, but I think we can see the corner from here.

Every month I go into this data with a mixture of fear and excitement. Will the numbers look better this month or not? Let’s find out.

[data pulled from Triangle MLS at about 10pm last night]

In Durham County there were 2,196 available listings at the end of April. 189 sales were completed in April meaning the current home inventory would be sold in 11.6 months. This is an improvement of 1.7 months, which follows a 1.6 month improvement in March. It is still a buyer’s market in Durham County, but there is steady improvement.

For the 27713 zip code there were 500 homes available on April 30. 41 sales were completed in April leaving 12.2 months of inventory available, which is about the same as last month. This is also the first month where there was more inventory available in South Durham that in the County as a whole.

[As an aside, there are 2 listings which have been on the market since 2007 and another 6 that were listed prior to May 1, 2008. For comparison, 112 houses were listed in April 2009]

Now let’s take a look at some of our favorite communities;

• Hope Valley Farms was the big winner this month with 7 closings. There are currently 59 homes available, which is 8.4 months of inventory — almost exactly the same as last month.
• Close behind was Woodcroft with 6 closings in April. Woodcroft has 75 which translates into 12.5 months of inventory. That’s a big drop from the 16.2 months of inventory available at the end of March. almost a third of the homes available in Woodcroft were listed in April, and another third in March, so these numbers will improve as that inventory burns off.
• Woodlake was the third place finisher with 5 closed sales in April. 17 homes are currrently available, which would sell through in 3.4 months. I’m pretty sure the sales number is a spike — we’ll see in May
• Parkwood again only had one closing in April. The number of homes available increased to 24. This bears watching, as it is really unusual.

So, like most months, some good news and some bad news. It’s up to you to decide which side of the glass you want to look at. See you next month.