It’s the 1st of July — where did the first half of the year go? In any case, the sun is [really] out, so let’s see if it heated up the real estate market.

For all of Durham County there were 2,506 homes listed for sale at the end of June – again within a percent or so of last month. 468 sales closed in June, another increase about 30%. That means that it would take 5.3 months like June to work through the current housing inventory. That’s a drop of almost two months, another great improvement going into the summer.

For the 27713 zip code there were 528 homes listed at the end of June – another roughly 5% drop from May. 128 homes sold during May, an increase of close to 20%s. That huge increase in closings moved the adsorption rate to 4.1 months – another drop of a month.

Now for the bad news. As you know if you read these posts regularly, I believe a lot of the sales over the April – June period were driven by the Federal tax credit [which appears like it will be extended to allows closings past June 30]. To attempt to get a handle on that, we’ve been tracking the number of pending listings, most of which should close in the next 60 days. Here’s the new set of those numbers;

In each successive month, the number of pendings has dropped significantly. Based on the pending sales as of 7/1, I  would predict that closed sales will drop about 25 percent city-wide in July and possibly even farther in south Durham. On the other hand, a drop of even 25% would only put everything back in balance, so it’s not all doom and gloom either.

Speaking of neighborhoods, here are the ones we look at each month.

Many neighborhoods were able to take part in the strong sales in June — especially Woodcroft and Hope Valley Farms. As we all know, the housing market in south Durham is largely defined by those two subdivisions. Wynterfield contines to be the “problem child” with sluggish sales continuing in June. On the other end, Audubon Park continues its amazing run of strong months. Apparently no one told them the housing market collapsed a couple years ago.

As I noted above, I believe this may be the high-water month for the 2010 real estate market. The Federal tax credit did a great job of pulling sales from the latter half to 2010 into the second quarter. the real question now may be whether that is a short-term dip, or a larger problem. Either way, we’ll be here reporting on it next month.

OK, I admit it – I can’t come up with anything catchy for this intro. Let’s go straight to the numbers, shall we?

For all of Durham County there were 2,543 homes listed for sale at the end of May – almost exactly the same number as in April. 357 sales closed in May, an increase about 40%. That means that it would take 7.1 months like May to work through the current housing inventory. That’s a drop of 3 months, which is a great improvement.

For the 27713 zip code there were 561 homes listed at the end of May – a small drop from April. 109 homes sold during May, almost double April’s numbers. That huge increase in closings moved the adsorption rate to 5.1 months – a great move towards health in the housing market

Last month we talked about the effects of the Federal tax credit. As you probably know, homes had to be under contract by the end of April, and they have to close by the end of June. You could see the effects of that in the number of pending listings, which were very inflated at the end of April. Here’s what they looked like at the end of May.

• Durham County: 490 [April 657]
• 27713 area code: 112 [April 166]

As you can see, that “tax credit backlog” started to shrink in May as those transactions from late March and April started to close. The pending sales numbers seem to support June closings at about the same level as May, which will do a long to eat through the backlog of listings in some of our neighborhoods.

Speaking of neighborhoods, here are the ones we look at each month.

While most neighborhoods reflected the general improvement in the market, some are still struggling. Wynterfield in particular is seeing a slow recovery from the lows of last winter. Woodcroft is posting some stronger numbers, although the large number of homes on the market is still making the numbers look worse than they perhaps are. On the other hand, the other two mainstays of the South Durham market – Parkwood and Hope Valley Farms – have returned to the market strength one would expect of them. And Audubon Park posted improvement on
its impressive numbers of April – turnover there is less than a month!

The numbers show that June should be a solid month for real estate in Durham. We’re starting to see a decline in the number of homes available, which should bring more price stability to the housing market. There certainly will be some turbulence in July and August as we transition frm a market propped up be Federal intervention, but I’m optimistic that we can get through that. Either way, we’ll be here at the start of July to let you know how things are going.

April is when flowers start to bloom, home buyers come out in force, and the $8,000 Federal tax credit expired. Which of those had more of an effect on the market?

For all of Durham County there were 2,551 homes listed for sale at the end of April – an increase of almost 5%. 251 sales closed in April, which is an increase of about 20%. That means that it would take 10.1 months like April to work through the current housing inventory. That a drop of 1.2 months — another step towards a stable market

For the 27713 zip code there were 579 homes listed at the end of April – an increase of just over 5%. 58 homes sold during March, a 16% increase. The combination of increased listings and increased closings puts the adsorption rate at 10.0 months – another small step as the market firms up.

With the Federal Tax Credit expiring at the end of April, it might be worth looking at the number of homes sales pending at the end of the month. That should give us some idea of the number of transactions we’ll see in May and June. It’s not perfect — some of these will not close until later in the year, others will fall out of contract and not close at all. Nonetheless, here are the current numbers

• Durham County: 657
• 27713 area code: 166

Those are both pretty solid numbers and a cause for some optimism heading into summer.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

On a neighborhood level, recovery is still uneven. Hope valley Farms backed down from the March numbers, while Woodcroft and Parkwood both took a small step back. I should also note that this is the second month without sales for Wynterfield, Wellington Forest and Colvard Farms.

Like I said last month, I still believe this will be a fairly solid summer for real estate. The tax credit will continue to power sales until the end of June [qualifying sales must close by June 30], and that momentum should drive us through the end of the 2010 selling season. To find out if I’m right, watch these pages.

We know that January and February were rough real estate months in Durham. I’ve predicted that March would be when we turned the corner. Let’s see if I’m right.

For all of Durham County there were 2,435 homes listed for sale at the end of March – an increase of almost 20%. 216 sales closed in March, which doubles the closings in February. That means that it would take 11.3 months like March to work through the current housing inventory. This brings us back much closer to a stable market — remember the rates for January and February were well into the teens – but we’re not quite there yet.

For the 27713 zip code there were 539 homes listed at the end of March – another 30% increase in listings. 50 homes sold during March, more than doubling sales in February. The combination of increased listings and increased closings puts the adsorption rate at 10.8 months — exactly half of the February total.

It’s worth noting again the staggering increase in total listings every month this year. Let’s put those numbers next to each other [county wide listings/27713 listings]

• July: 2,046/427
• December 1,774/286
• January: 1,896/335
• February: 2,070/410
• March: 2,435/539

So in February we already matched the inventory from the height of last summer, and March posted significant gains in both areas. Sales are there, so once we burn through the new listings flooding the market, things look promising. It’s certainly possible
that the jump in listings relates to the timing of the Federal tax credit — we’ll see how true that is over the next two months.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

[As a side note, there are a lot of subdivisions with one listing. 82 different subdivisions in the 27713 area code have at least one listing]

As you can see, the rebound is uneven. Woodcroft and Parkwood, for example, have shown quite a rebound while Hope Valley Farms is still in the doldrums. I can’t believe, however, that will be a long term trend

Watch for the effects of the Federal tax credit to intensify over the next two months as buyers scramble to get a home under contract by the April 30 deadline. Expect to see the number of listings level off as it is almost too late to list now and sell before the credit expires. closings, however, will continue to rise through June, then level off for third quarter 2010.

Earlier today, the National Association of Realtors released their Local Market Report for the Durham market covering the 4th Quarter of last year. There is a ton of information in the charts and graphs, but the executive summary is that the Durham market has been holding its own better than the national average, but the unemployment situation [which is worse than the national average] clouds any future projections. Go, take a look at the NAR figures and tell us what you think.

Yesterday, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service released its Market Update for February 2010. Before I give you the links, I want to pull some stats out of the Durham County report;

Feb10 Market Stats

Take a look at the year on year numbers for new listings and closed sales. That’s a 20+% increase in New Listings and an almost 20% decline in closed sales. That’s enough to put a crimp in anyone’s sales analysis.

Here’s the numbers for our local counties

• Entire Triangle Region
• Durham County
• Orange County
• Wake County

January was certainly the (real estate) winter of our discontent. Was February more of the same?

For all of Durham County there were 2,070 homes listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of almost 10%. 105 sales closed in February [a drop of about 10%] meaning that it would take 19.7 months of Februarys to work through the current housing inventory. This is a another big step backward from last month’s 16 months of inventory and again the highest total I’ve seen since I started tracking these numbers.

For the 27713 zip code there were 410 homes listed at the end of February – again an increase of close to 20%. Only 19 homes sold during February leaving the adsorption rate at 21.6 months — another 50% increase.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

I still left the column for adsorption rate, but with sales numbers so small, it isn’t useful to calculate it.

Sales showed another drop for this month, but the real news is the stunning and continued increase in listings. The total number of homes on the market is already at mid-summer levels and it’s only March 1st. My guess is that savvy homeowners are trying to list their homes early in the season, so they can sell before the tax credit expires on April 30. Buyers, on the other hand, have been held back by the snow and [for us anyway] Arctic blasts of December and January. With listings going up and closed sales declining, adsorption rates skyrocket.

I can say, however, that I certainly talked to more people in February than I have in a long time, and most of the Realtors I’ve spoken to report the same thing. Of course, none of that is guaranteed to translate into March and April closings, but it is a sign of optimism.

For those of you who won’t take my word for it, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service released their Local Market Update for the Triangle.

The Cliff’s Notes version? January was a tough month for all the reasons I mention in my earlier post. Some of those are seasonal and will go away are the temperature warms up. Some are more fundamental, and we will have to see what happens with those.

[Incidentally, the final totals differ from my original report by about 10%. My guess is several sales that closed on 1/29 were not entered into the MLS until 2/1 -- or even later. It is something I will keep an eye on in future months]

Last month I predicted the market would sag in January due to both the normal market decline and the lack of people making offers during the Holiday season [offers made in December usually close in January]. Was my crystal ball accurate? Let’s find out.

For all of Durham County there were 1,896 homes listed for sale at the end of January – an increase of almost 10%. 116 sales closed in January [a drop of just over a third] meaning that it would take 16.3 months of Januarys to work through the current housing inventory. This is a another big step backward from last month’s 9.9 months of inventory and the highest total I’ve seen since I started tracking these numbers.

For the 27713 zip code there were 335 homes listed at the end of January – a 17% increase. Only 24 homes sold during January leaving the
adsorption rate at just under 14 months — almost double the December number and again the highest I’ve seen.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

I left the column for adsorption rate, but with sales numbers so small, it isn’t useful to calculate it. Like I mentioned above, I believe the staggering drop in sales is due to two main factors;

1. There were very few days in December for buyers to be looking at property. The Holidays ate up a lot of the month, and much of what was left was bitterly cold, so no one was out looking at property.
2. The first iteration of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer’s Credit made a lot of December closings into November closings.

I am, however, surprised by the number of people who listed their home for the first time in January. Whether it is people trying to trade up before the new tax credit expires, or people trying to move down as their job situation changed, or something entirely different, I don’t know. I do know that those new listings really affected the numbers for January.

What does the crystal ball say for February? I still expect sales to start showing an improvement in February [they can't go much lower, right?] as the weather improves and people again start getting into that new home frame of mind. I also believe people will start thinking about the new, improved tax credit, and that will stir up some movement. We’ll have to wait another four weeks, however, it see if I’m right

Last month I predicted the market would sag in December due to both the normal market decline and the surge of people trying to close prior to the old tax credit deadline [on November 30]. The numbers are in, so let’s see how well my crystal ball worked.

For all of Durham County there were 1,774 homes listed for sale as the ball dropped – almost the same as at Thanksgiving. 179 sales closed in December meaning that it would take 9.9 months of Decembers to work through the current housing inventory. This is a big, if expected, step backward from last November’s 7.8 months of inventory.

For the 27713 zip code there were 286 homes listed at the end of December – a 12% decline. Only 36 homes sold during December leaving the
adsorption rate at 7.9 months. Again, this is a drop from November’s rate of 5.0 months. Apparently fewer people than NAR predicted fit a new home under their Christmas trees.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

The communities above account for almost two-thirds of the total sales in the 27713 area code. This isn’t too surprising — when sales are down they tend to group around the larger, more “solid” subdivisions such as Hope Valley Farms, Woodcroft, and Parkwood. When sales improve you start seeing other places — Penrith, Villages of Cornwallis, Colvard Farms and the like.

What does the crystal ball say for January? I expect sales to still be depressed for January, as the cold tends to keep potential buyers indoors: not quite as down as December, but close. I believe the numbers will start to turn in [late] February as the combination of warmer weather and the imminent end of the home-buyers tax credit will spur people back into the marketplace.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on January 1 at about 9:00 AM -- I might have been the only person awake . . . . ]