For those of you who won’t take my word for it, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service released their Local Market Update for the Triangle.

The Cliff’s Notes version? January was a tough month for all the reasons I mention in my earlier post. Some of those are seasonal and will go away are the temperature warms up. Some are more fundamental, and we will have to see what happens with those.

[Incidentally, the final totals differ from my original report by about 10%. My guess is several sales that closed on 1/29 were not entered into the MLS until 2/1 -- or even later. It is something I will keep an eye on in future months]

Last month I predicted the market would sag in January due to both the normal market decline and the lack of people making offers during the Holiday season [offers made in December usually close in January]. Was my crystal ball accurate? Let’s find out.

For all of Durham County there were 1,896 homes listed for sale at the end of January – an increase of almost 10%. 116 sales closed in January [a drop of just over a third] meaning that it would take 16.3 months of Januarys to work through the current housing inventory. This is a another big step backward from last month’s 9.9 months of inventory and the highest total I’ve seen since I started tracking these numbers.

For the 27713 zip code there were 335 homes listed at the end of January – a 17% increase. Only 24 homes sold during January leaving the
adsorption rate at just under 14 months — almost double the December number and again the highest I’ve seen.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

I left the column for adsorption rate, but with sales numbers so small, it isn’t useful to calculate it. Like I mentioned above, I believe the staggering drop in sales is due to two main factors;

1. There were very few days in December for buyers to be looking at property. The Holidays ate up a lot of the month, and much of what was left was bitterly cold, so no one was out looking at property.
2. The first iteration of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer’s Credit made a lot of December closings into November closings.

I am, however, surprised by the number of people who listed their home for the first time in January. Whether it is people trying to trade up before the new tax credit expires, or people trying to move down as their job situation changed, or something entirely different, I don’t know. I do know that those new listings really affected the numbers for January.

What does the crystal ball say for February? I still expect sales to start showing an improvement in February [they can't go much lower, right?] as the weather improves and people again start getting into that new home frame of mind. I also believe people will start thinking about the new, improved tax credit, and that will stir up some movement. We’ll have to wait another four weeks, however, it see if I’m right

Last month I predicted the market would sag in December due to both the normal market decline and the surge of people trying to close prior to the old tax credit deadline [on November 30]. The numbers are in, so let’s see how well my crystal ball worked.

For all of Durham County there were 1,774 homes listed for sale as the ball dropped – almost the same as at Thanksgiving. 179 sales closed in December meaning that it would take 9.9 months of Decembers to work through the current housing inventory. This is a big, if expected, step backward from last November’s 7.8 months of inventory.

For the 27713 zip code there were 286 homes listed at the end of December – a 12% decline. Only 36 homes sold during December leaving the
adsorption rate at 7.9 months. Again, this is a drop from November’s rate of 5.0 months. Apparently fewer people than NAR predicted fit a new home under their Christmas trees.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

The communities above account for almost two-thirds of the total sales in the 27713 area code. This isn’t too surprising — when sales are down they tend to group around the larger, more “solid” subdivisions such as Hope Valley Farms, Woodcroft, and Parkwood. When sales improve you start seeing other places — Penrith, Villages of Cornwallis, Colvard Farms and the like.

What does the crystal ball say for January? I expect sales to still be depressed for January, as the cold tends to keep potential buyers indoors: not quite as down as December, but close. I believe the numbers will start to turn in [late] February as the combination of warmer weather and the imminent end of the home-buyers tax credit will spur people back into the marketplace.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on January 1 at about 9:00 AM -- I might have been the only person awake . . . . ]

For those of you who won’t take my word for it, the triangle Multiple Listing Service released their Local Market Update for the counties that make up the Triangle. Here’s the links to individual counties;

• The Triangle as a whole
• Durham County
• Chatham County
• Wake County
• Orange County

The Cliff’s Notes version? November 2009 figures are vastly improved [in some cases double] compared to the same numbers from November 2008. The original $8,000 tax credit, however, expired in November and that really drove sales. The Year to Date numbers for 2009 are fairly similar or slightly worse than the 2008 numbers in most counties.

November originally was the end of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. Did the approaching deadline [which was moved to April 30] spur sales during the month of November? Let’s see what the numbers say.

For all of Durham County there were 1819 houses listed at the end of November. 231 sales closed in November, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 7.8 months. There was 8.2 months of inventory at the end of October, so it appears that overall Durham market has stabilized a bit.

For the 27713 area code there were 322 homes listed at the end of November. 64 homes sold during November, so the current listings would be sold through in 5.0 months. This is an improvement of 1.3 months of inventory compared to October’s numbers and moves South Durham into the  buyer’s market column again. We’ll have to see how long it can stay there.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

As you can see the improvement in sales was across the board. Even Woodcroft got into the act — finally posting the recovery I predicted two months ago

What’s in the crystal ball for December? I expect the numbers to decline a bit for several reasons. First of all, the extension of the Federal tax credit means many people will not be thinking of house shopping until well after the New Year. Secondly, the Christmas holiday means there are fewer business days in December. Fewer business days equals fewer closings. So I expect a big drop in December, a slight recovery in January and continued improvement going into 2010. Durham has always been a market that showed slow and steady improvements – I’m pretty sure that won’t change now.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on December 1 at about 7:00 AM]

I’ve talked to several real estate brokers over the past month who have observed a market stall during October — fewer showings, fewer offers and generally less excitement about the market. Do the numbers support their observations? Let’s take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 1871 houses listed at the end of October. 228 sales closed in October, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 8.2 months. This is a drop of 1.6 months of inventory, which brings us back to the level we were at in August. Not the glory days we had in June/July, but
still some good solid numbers.

For the 27713 area code there were 344 homes listed at the end of October. 55 homes sold during October, so the current listings would be sold through in 6.3 months. Again, this pulls us back to the levels we were seeing in August, and makes the South Durham market fairly balanced. Can we get back to the brief seller’s market of the summer? Probably not this year, as sales during November/December are traditionally slow. Staying here, however, would be pretty good.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

Again, once you get past the top 3 developments, sales are spread out greatly with 32 subdivisions reporting at least one sale in October. Woodcroft, which was a shining star for much of the year, is stubbornly stuck in the 7s [I
had expected it to drop towards the 5s two months ago]. This also is the second month in a row that no sales were recorded in Colvard Farms.

As of today, the $8,000 first time homebuyers’ credit is set to expire on November 30. To take advantage under the current rules, almost all buyers would already have a home under contract. This would imply that November sales would be strong. Pending sales figures seem to support this, but we will see how many of those pending sales close in November. There is also news about an extension of the credit, but that is for another post.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on November 1 at about 9:00 AM]

Normally, the housing market starts to slow down when school starts in the
fall. Will that cycle repeat itself in 2009, or will the $8,000 tax credit
continue to drive the market? Let’s take a look at the numbers for September

For all of Durham County there were 1950 houses listed at the end of
September. 199 sales closed in August, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 9.8 months. This is another step backwards from the previous three months, which have seen us move from a six-month supply of homes to almost ten months. Again, the decline is driven almost entirely by a 10+% drop in the number of homes sold in September.

For the 27713 area code there were 351 homes listed at the end of September. 43 homes sold during September [a drop of almost 20% from August], so the current listings would be sold through in 8.2 months. This means the adsorption rate has almost doubled from the numbers we had in June/July. It does, however, still show that strength that South Durham has in leading the general Durham real estate market

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

This month’s sales figures were much more spread out than in many pervious months with thirty different communities recording at least on sale in September. And Woodcroft did not come back like I predicted last month.

The question is still the same one I asked in the first paragraph. Will the
$8,000 tax credit, which expires in just 60 days, be enough to overcome the tag team of mortgage issues and the end-of-year slump. We’ll see in 30 days.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on
September 30 at about 10:30 PM]

The Triangle Multiple Listing Service has released their market analysis for August. Their data shows what we all expect — the number of sales is down, homes are taking a bit longer to sell, but when they do the average price is steady or even improving slightly. To take a look at the numbers yourself, just click here

Last month’s housing data showed a strong increase in the health of the
Durham housing market. Will the numbers for June hang on to those gains? Let’s
take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 1994 houses listed at the end of June. 288
sales closed in June, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be
sold in 6.9 months. This is an small downtick from June’s adsorption tare of 6.2 months. It is still, however, a very strong showing for the county for the second month in a row.

For the 27713 area code there were 400 homes listed at the end of
June. 83 homes sold during June, so the current listings would be sold through
in 4.8 months. This is again a small softening of the market — last month’s number was 3.95 months — but again puts our little corner of Durham strongly in the realm of a seller’s market.

It’s worth noting that listings and sales declined this month compared to June. Listings declined slightly less than sales, which is why adsorption rates are slightly higher. Still it is another month of strength for the Durham market.

Let’s take a look at some individual communities

All of these communities still show strength as the overall housing market recovers.