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October Housing Numbers for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Woodlake And Elsewhere In Durham

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Where did Fall go? two weeks ago it was still Summer and now . . . well, it’s not exactly Winter, but it’s a lot closer.

For all of Durham County there were 1,947 homes listed for sale at the end of October – a drop of almost 100 listings. October saw 190 contracts close, a drop of 19 closings. Using October figures, it would take 10.2 months to work through our current inventory, which is an increase of a half-month over the September figure.

In South Durham 686 homes were listed for sale at the end of October - a drop of 29 listings. 67 sales closed in October, an increase of five closings from September. It would take 10.2 months like October to work our way through all the available homes, which is an improvement of 1.3 months from September’s figure

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	53	2	26.5 [-0.5]	$63,858 100% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	58	2	29.0 [+22.2]	$182,125 95% of list price
Woodlake	13	3	6.5 [+0.5]	$217,333 97% of list price
Parkwood	20	5	4.0	$135,745 97% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	12	3	4.0 [-13.0]	$325,000 96% of list price
Grandale	3	1	3.0	$375,000 99% of list price
Audubon Park	16	0	N/A	N/A
Falconbridge	11	1	11.0 [-1.0]	$266,000 95% of list price
Fairfield	13	2	6.5	$343,000 99% of list price
Lochside	8	0	N/A	N/A
Marydell Estates	3	0	N/A	N/A

[Random fact: The two sales in Woodcroft were both small condos - nothing else sold in Woodcroft in October]

So this month we saw a decent reduction in the number of listings, and a smaller reduction in closings [and an increase in S. Durham closings]. That isn’t entirely surprising, as some sellers started pulling their homes off the market in the last week of October. Those sellers have decided they don’t want to market their homes over the Holidays, but they will be back some January and February.Come next year when we are talking about a rush of new inventory in February, remember this.

[Oh, another piece of support for this -- on November 1st 115 listings expired. That was over 5% of the total listings available]

What is also worth noting is how spread out the closings were. In the past, we have seen the “Big Three” of Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Parkwood with the lion’s share of closings, but that isn’t the case this month. In fact, the “Big 3″ this month were Parkwood [5], the Hills At Southpoint [4] and Chancellor’s Ridge/Woodlake/Wyndcross [all with 3].

New construction didn’t keep up the blistering pace of last month, but The Hills At Southpoint did have 4 closings, so it wasn’t completely dead either.

What’s up for November? Closings will drop significantly if for no other reason than the lack of business days available to close in. This happened in November and December of last year as well. Also, we can expect more sellers to pull their homes off the market and relist in 2012, which will dampen the impact of the lower closing numbers.

There are still good reasons for having a home on the market today, even with the colder weather and the smaller pool of [more serious] buyers. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Happy Thanksgiving.

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Official Housing Stats For September

Sunday, October 30th, 2011

For those of you who can’t take my word for it, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service released its analysis of the Triangle housing market. . Overall, they show a market still righting itself – sales are down, but listings are down by more, which in the long run will lead to more stability. For those of you who can’t get enough of numbers and analysis, here are the links;

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September Housing Numbers for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Woodlake And Elsewhere In Durham

Sunday, October 2nd, 2011

This week, the weather definitely turned. Did September housing sales do the same? Let’s take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 2,030 homes listed for sale at the end of September – a drop of about 2.5%. September saw 209 contracts close, a drop of about 3.5%. Using September figures, it would take 9.7 months to work through our current inventory an increase of 2.2 months over the August figure.

In South Durham 717 homes were listed for sale at the end of September – again a drop of about 2.5%. 62 sales closed in September, a drop of almost a third from August. It would take 11.5 months like September to work our way through all the available homes.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	54	2	27.0 [+20.4]	$144,000 97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	62	9	6.8 [-3.2]	$208,500 97% of list price
Woodlake	18	3	6.0 [+2.2]	$186,917 98% of list price
Parkwood	23	0	N/A	N/A
Chancellors Ridge	17	1	17.0 [-2.0]	$142,500 95% of list price
Grandale	3	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	15	0	N/A	N/A
Falconbridge	12	1	12.0 [+5.0]	$165,000 92% of list price
Fairfield	14	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	10	0	N/A	N/A
Marydell Estates	3	0	N/A	N/A

Last month I predicted a dropoff on closings as the summer winds down. We certainly saw that in September as listings dropped a little bit, and closings dropped significantly. I would expect more of the same in October as the weather cools and the market starts towards it’s winter hibernation. Buyers are still out there, and they are the serious buyers, but most of the casual buyers are starting to head towards the exits until Spring

The most interesting thing about the September numbers is the number of new construction homes closing in September. fully 25 % of homes closed in September were built in 2010 or 2011, including 5 sales in Wyndmoor at the Park, 3 at Stafford Lakes and 3 at Foxwood Manor. That’s not entirely surprising as most of these homes were probably put under contract in April or May — just as the 2011 market was heating up. It must, however, bring a small smile to a section of the market that has taken a beating for a while.

What’s up for October? More of the same, I suspect. Closings will drop again, but not by a whole lot. More importantly, closings will continue to out pace new listings allowing us to slowly work through some of the backlog we have had built up in 2009 and 2010. hopefully that will put us in better shape come 2012.

There is still time, but not much, to take advantage of this improved homebuying season. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you
in November.

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August Housing Stats For Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms, Lochside And Elsewhere In Durham

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

So far, the summer months have been very good to the Durham housing market. Let’s see if August can keep up the pace.

For all of Durham County there were 2,081 homes listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of over over 100 listings. August saw 277 contracts close, a gain of 20 closings. Using August figures, it would take 7.5 months to work through our current inventory which puts us almost back to June’s numbers. An adsorption rate between six and eight months is generally considered a balanced market, so overall Durham is in pretty good shape.

In South Durham 735 homes were listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of 69 homes. 91 sales closed in August, a drop of 12 closings. It would only 7.6 months like August to work our way through all the available homes, which, as I noted above, puts South Durham firmly in the balanced market range.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	59	9	6.6 [-0.8]	$180,711 97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	61	9	6.8 [-3.2]	$217,444 96% of list price
Woodlake	19	5	3.8 [-1.0]	$203,500 96% of list price
Parkwood	24	2	12.0 [+5.7]	$131,500 87% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	19	1	19.0 [+13.0]	$299,980 100% of list price
Grandale	3	2	1.5 [-1.5]	$279,500 96% of list price
Audubon Park	13	2	6.5 [-5.5]	$210,500 99% of list price
Falconbridge	14	2	7.0	$171,750 95% of list price
Fairfield	14	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	9	0	N/A	N/A
Marydell Estates	2	0	N/A	N/A

[Remember how Penrith had 4 closings in July? Zero in August]

August continued the pattern of solid summer sales. Most importantly, as homes sold in August [and June and July], more sellers did not step up to replace them. This allowed us to work down some of that inventory and keep adsorption rates and prices fairly strong. The real notable exception to that is Parkwood, which is continuing its string of terrible months. I still believe that things will improve in Parkwood as the Revere Road construction winds up, but there is a lot of recovery to do there.

What does the future hold? Well at some point this Fall we will see sales drop off and the market settle towards its winter slumber. That might happen in September, although October is more likely

Tags: Durham, housing stats

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A Survey Where #8 Is Nothing To Sneeze At

Thursday, August 4th, 2011

CNBC published a slideshow earlier this week — 10 Cities Virtually Untouched By The Housing Bust. It’s a quick overview of several small towns that have been little affected by the housing bust. Durham is #8, which is something to crow about [Fayetteville is #1].

It’s nice to get good press, but I’d like to see this analysis taken to the next level. The CNBC piece has the “change from national peak,” which is their attempt to track how far that market has fallen since the summit. I’d like to see someone compare that to how far that market rose during the housing boom. I’m pretty certain that most of these markets didn’t see a big rise during the boom, didn’t have an overheated housing market, and therefore didn’t crash. I know that is true for us, and probably Fayetteville – I can’t speak for the rest of those markets.

BTW, if you don’t like slideshows, a more readable list is at Agent Genius.

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* Official Triangle Housing Numbers From Triangle MLS

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

If you have seen any national housing news, you know February was a rough month for housing in the US. We’ve also looked at the local housing numbers and, while we saw some reason to hope, they weren’t so rosy either. Earlier this week, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service posted the “official” figures for the Triangle’s counties for February 2011.

Here’s the numbers for our local counties

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* February Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

With the nice weather this week, most of our flowers and shrubs have started to sprout. Did February bring the same kind of promising shoots as my shrubbery? Well, yes, but not in the way you might think. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

For all of Durham County there were 2,186 homes listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 5%. 136 sales closed in February, an drop of almost 13%. Using February figures, it would take 16.1 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.8 months.

In South Durham (*) 848 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 14%. 37 sales closed in February, a drop of 22% from February numbers. It would take 22.9 Februarys to work our way through all the available homes, an increase of 7.1 months.

February showed a second month of decline in houses sold. Some of this is expected, since February is a short month. Still, the drop in South Durham sales is something we should pay special attention to in the coming months.

This month’s figures also show one of the weaknesses in looking at adsorption rate. Buyers and sellers both entered the market in February. When a seller enters the market, you see it immediately as there is an active listing. When a buyer enters the market, however, there is a delay of 2-3 months as the buyer finds a new property and the transaction works its way to closing. So when the market recovers, one might expect the adsorption rate to spike a bit as sellers enter the market, then drop as the buyers “catch up.” It’s far too early to
predict that here, but we shouldn’t panic about those scary high adsorption rates either.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	76	2	38.0 [+16.7]	$165,500 97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	72	3	24.0 [+12.8]	$126,867 91% of list price
Woodlake	25	2	12.5	155,750 97% of list price
Parkwood	30	0	N/A	N/A
Chancellors Ridge	22	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	6	1	6.0 [-1.0]	$330,000 100% of list price
Audubon Park	11	0	N/A	N/A
The Hills at Southpoint	5	2	2.5 [+1.5]	$466,990 100% of list price

As we noted above, many new listings came on the market this month — Woodcroft +12, Hope Valley Farms +16, Woodlake +11, Chancellor’s Ridge +7 — and that is pushing adsorption rates through the roof. It will take another month or two before the buyers who came out in February translate into closed sales.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

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* January Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, February 1st, 2011

I don’t know about you, but I’m about done with winter. It’s cold, the snow is a pain, and houses don’t sell like they do in the Spring. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s look at the January numbers

For all of Durham County there were 2,080 homes listed for sale at the end of January – an increase of 8%. 156 sales closed in January, an drop of almost 20%. Using January figures, it would take 13.3 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.9 months. Compared to last 2010, however, this is a pretty big step forward [January 2010: 1,896 listings, 116 closings, adsorption rate 16.3]

In South Durham (*) 743 homes were listed for sale at the end of January. 47 sales closed in January, which means that it would take 15.8 Januarys to work our way through all the available homes.

To keep our 27713 comparisons for one final month — January 2011 listings: 457 compared to 422 in December and 335 in January 2010. January 2011 closings: 25 compared to 35 in December and 24 in January 2010. so our sales are consistent with last year, but we have more inventory to work through.

Why do sales drop in January? In many ways it is a mirror image of the problems in December. We said last month that people don’t like to close and move in December. Well, generally the holidays mean that they don’t have time to look at property either. That lack of shopping and making offers in December plays through as a lack of closings in January. If you want to see how the 2011 housing market is going to look in Durham, you’re going to have to wait for the February [and honestly, March] figures.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	64	3	21.3 [+7.5]	$144,033 97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	56	5	11.2 [+3.6]	$201,680 95% of list price
Woodlake	14	0	N/A	N/A
Parkwood	31	1	31 [+21.7]	$132,100 94% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	15	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	7	1	7.0	$466,900 97% of list price
Audubon Park	8	1	8.0	$200,000 100% of list price
The Hills at Southpoint	3	3	1.0	$490,330 100% of list price

As is usual in slow months, sales tend to congregate in the larger neighborhoods — Hope Valley Farms, Woodcroft and Parkwood [although Parkwood did not hold up its end in January]. The Hills at Southpoint also showed that there is some interest in new construction, which is a good sign for our local market.

Last month we said there would be some improvement in January 2011 compared to January 2010 — we saw that. Agents have also seen more activity in January. More properties are being shown and it feels like the market locally is improving. We’ll see in February and march whether these perceptions have any basis in reality. When we do, you’ll see it here.

Tags: Durham, housing stats

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* November Housing Numbers for Woodcroft, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Wednesday, December 1st, 2010

Well the weather outside is [OK, not so] frightful, but our fires are so delightful. Were home sales in Durham as delightful as our Holiday decorations? Let’s take a look.

For all of Durham County there were 2,256 homes listed for sale at the end of November – a drop of about four percent. 136 sales closed in November, an drop of about about 25%. Using November figures, it would take 16.6 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of four months.

For the 27713 zip code there were 472 homes listed at the end of November – a decline of about three percent. Only 36 homes sold during November, a twenty percent decline. That combination moved the adsorption rate to 13.1 months – an increase of just over two months.

Why the decline? First of all, we lost two business days due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Actually we lost more than that as very few people are
interested in moving close to Thanksgiving. That alone might explain the decline. Normally, I would compare November 2010 numbers to November 2009, but the first-time homebuyers’ credit was set to expire at the end of November 2009, so those numbers aren’t comparable [they are about twice as good as November 2010 for what that is worth]

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	67	8	8.4 [-1.9]	$117,663 96% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	58	5	11.6 [-9.1]	$184,900 98% of list price
Woodlake	15	1	15	$209,400 97% of list price
Parkwood	28	0	N/A	N/A
Chancellors Ridge	16	1	16 [+12.5]	$310,000 95% of list price
Wynterfield	15	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	4	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	9	1	9.0	$194,000 97% of list price
Colvard Farms	14	0	N/A	N/A

Woodcroft was the star this month with almost double the sales of any other neighborhood for the second month in a row. Hope Valley Farms held up its part of the “Big 3″ in November, but Parkwood dropped that ball by having no closed sales at all . Colvard Farms had a second month of no sales at all with several other neighborhoods keeping it company

Neighborhoods to watch: The Hills at Southpoint had four sales in November

What’s in the crystal ball for December? Last December saw sales numbers close to the number we had for November 2010, so I would expect our numbers for this December to be little changed from November. After all, Christmas takes as big a chunk out of the closing schedule as Thanksgiving does. I would expect to see stable overall sales with wide variations at the neighborhood level — just like in November. It won’t be the best ending to a year, but it will give us something to take into 2011.

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* October Housing Numbers for Woodcroft, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Monday, November 1st, 2010

It’s November — the nights are cooler, the leaves have turned, and thoughts start to turn from Halloween to Thanksgiving and Christmas. Were home sales in October closer to the treats of Thanksgiving dinner, or the tricks of Halloween? Let’s find out

For all of Durham County there were 2,349 homes listed for sale at the end of October – a drop of about two percent. 187 sales closed in October, an drop of about a percent. Using October figures, it would take 12.6 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of one month.

For the 27713 zip code there were 490 homes listed at the end of October – exactly the same number as at the beginning of the month. Only 46 homes sold during October, a twenty percent increase. That combination moved the adsorption rate to 10.7 months – a drop of just over two months. It also ends the short streak of south Durham performing worse than the rest of the county and moves it back to the same position it
traditionally holds.

While the 27713 results are encouraging, both the local and county-wide numbers are significantly worse than a year ago [Durham: 8.2 months, 27713: 6.3 months]. Some of that is due to the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit, which was then set to expire at the end of November 2009 and would have improved numbers for 2009. More of it is probably due to the weaker economy of 2010 compared to 2009. In any case, it is clear that we have a way to go to get back to a healthy housing market.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	72	7	10.3 [+0.5]	$163,464 94% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	62	3	20.7 [-0.3]	$210,000 94% of list price
Woodlake	18	0	N/A	N/A
Parkwood	27	3	9.0 [-]	$147,000 99% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	14	4	3.5 [-1.2]	$233,444 97% of list price
Wynterfield	11	1	11.0 [+8.1]	$119,000 98% of list price
Grandale	7	1	7.0 [-]	$310,000 97% of list price
Audubon Park	10	0	N/A	N/A
Colvard Farms	13	0	N/A	N/A

Woodcroft was the star this month with almost double the sales of any other neighborhood. Chancellor’s Ridge also posted a second month of solid performance — perhaps it will become the new Audubon Park with several months of robust sales. Hope Valley Farms and Parkwood continued to post their usual number of sales with HVF continuing to have a high number of listings, which inflates its adsorption rate. Audubon Park and Colvard Farms both had a second consecutive month with no sales at all.

Neighborhoods to watch: Both Lochside and Southampton had three sales in October

As we noted last month, September/October is traditionally the start of the “slow season” in real estate. That should not be an excuse, as current sales numbers are a disappointment compared to 2009. It’s reasonable to suspect that both sales and listings will drop over the Holidays — hopefully both in relatively the same proportions. We’ll continue to follow and report the numbers here each month.

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