For all of Durham County there were 2,081 homes listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of over over 100 listings. August saw 277 contracts close, a gain of 20 closings. Using August figures, it would take 7.5 months to work through our current inventory which puts us almost back to June’s numbers. An adsorption rate between six and eight months is generally considered a balanced market, so overall Durham is in pretty good shape.

In South Durham 735 homes were listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of 69 homes. 91 sales closed in August, a drop of 12 closings. It would only 7.6 months like August to work our way through all the available homes, which, as I noted above, puts South Durham firmly in the balanced market range.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

[Remember how Penrith had 4 closings in July? Zero in August]

August continued the pattern of solid summer sales. Most importantly, as homes sold in August [and June and July], more sellers did not step up to replace them. This allowed us to work down some of that inventory and keep adsorption rates and prices fairly strong. The real notable exception to that is Parkwood, which is continuing its string of terrible months. I still believe that things will improve in Parkwood as the Revere Road construction winds up, but there is a lot of recovery to do there.

What does the future hold? Well at some point this Fall we will see sales drop off and the market settle towards its winter slumber. That might happen in September, although October is more likely

There is still time, but not much, to take advantage of this improved homebuying season. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you
in October.

Hit the link for more details on this great home.

We’ll be holding an Open house to celebrate this new lsiting on Sunday, August 28th from 3-5PM. We’d love to see you then, or if you can’t come out them, call or email me and we’ll arrange a showing.

It’s nice to get good press, but I’d like to see this analysis taken to the next level. The CNBC piece has the “change from national peak,” which is their attempt to track how far that market has fallen since the summit. I’d like to see someone compare that to how far that market rose during the housing boom. I’m pretty certain that most of these markets didn’t see a big rise during the boom, didn’t have an overheated housing market, and therefore didn’t crash. I know that is true for us, and probably Fayetteville – I can’t speak for the rest of those markets.

BTW, if you don’t like slideshows, a more readable list is at Agent Genius.

Here’s the numbers for our local counties

• Entire Triangle Region
• Durham County
• Orange County
• Wake County

Bull City Rising has an excellent interview with Wilma Dillard and many of her customers where Dillard talks both about the restaurant and what she hopes will be in her future. Go read it — I couldn’t say it better.

For all of Durham County there were 2,186 homes listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 5%. 136 sales closed in February, an drop of almost 13%. Using February figures, it would take 16.1 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.8 months.

In South Durham (*) 848 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 14%. 37 sales closed in February, a drop of 22% from February numbers. It would take 22.9 Februarys to work our way through all the available homes, an increase of 7.1 months.

February showed a second month of decline in houses sold. Some of this is expected, since February is a short month. Still, the drop in South Durham sales is something we should pay special attention to in the coming months.

This month’s figures also show one of the weaknesses in looking at adsorption rate. Buyers and sellers both entered the market in February. When a seller enters the market, you see it immediately as there is an active listing. When a buyer enters the market, however, there is a delay of 2-3 months as the buyer finds a new property and the transaction works its way to closing. So when the market recovers, one might expect the adsorption rate to spike a bit as sellers enter the market, then drop as the buyers “catch up.” It’s far too early to
predict that here, but we shouldn’t panic about those scary high adsorption rates either.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

As we noted above, many new listings came on the market this month — Woodcroft +12, Hope Valley Farms +16, Woodlake +11, Chancellor’s Ridge +7 — and that is pushing adsorption rates through the roof. It will take another month or two before the buyers who came out in February translate into closed sales.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

Happy Birthday, Durham!

For all of Durham County there were 2,080 homes listed for sale at the end of January – an increase of 8%. 156 sales closed in January, an drop of almost 20%. Using January figures, it would take 13.3 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.9 months. Compared to last 2010, however, this is a pretty big step forward [January 2010: 1,896 listings, 116 closings, adsorption rate 16.3]

In South Durham (*) 743 homes were listed for sale at the end of January. 47 sales closed in January, which means that it would take 15.8 Januarys to work our way through all the available homes.

To keep our 27713 comparisons for one final month — January 2011 listings: 457 compared to 422 in December and 335 in January 2010. January 2011 closings: 25 compared to 35 in December and 24 in January 2010. so our sales are consistent with last year, but we have more inventory to work through.

Why do sales drop in January? In many ways it is a mirror image of the problems in December. We said last month that people don’t like to close and move in December. Well, generally the holidays mean that they don’t have time to look at property either. That lack of shopping and making offers in December plays through as a lack of closings in January. If you want to see how the 2011 housing market is going to look in Durham, you’re going to have to wait for the February [and honestly, March] figures.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

As is usual in slow months, sales tend to congregate in the larger neighborhoods — Hope Valley Farms, Woodcroft and Parkwood [although Parkwood did not hold up its end in January]. The Hills at Southpoint also showed that there is some interest in new construction, which is a good sign for our local market.

Last month we said there would be some improvement in January 2011 compared to January 2010 — we saw that. Agents have also seen more activity in January. More properties are being shown and it feels like the market locally is improving. We’ll see in February and march whether these perceptions have any basis in reality. When we do, you’ll see it here.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

The Durham location announced is at the intersection of S. Roxboro Road and Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. That store will be about 109,000 square feet and will have just about everything, including extended grocery selections, a deli section, a meats department and a pharmacy. The only departments missing will be an outdoor center and a tire/lube shop.

With the new store set to open in fall 2011, and the existing Kroger shopping center, the S. Roxboro/MLK intersection is set to be one of the most heavily traveled in south Durham. Add to that the elementary school planned for that intersection [currently scheduled for 2017] and you could have the makings of a real traffic mess.

Another question left unanswered is what will happen to the rumored plans to build a Wal-Mart in the Kentington Heights area just south of Southpoint. While it is certainly possible Wal-Mart could build both, having three stores within 4 miles of each other is probably a bit much even for Wal-Mart. We will certainly see how this develops in the coming months.

[Thanks to Bull City Rising for the initial notice]