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Bull City Real Estate

Real Estate in Durham with Sidetrips to Chapel Hill and elsewhere in the Triangle

Posts Tagged ‘Durham’

February Housing States for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

As I write this, the thermometer just hit 80. Has the real estate market thawed as quickly as Winter did? Let’s take a look.

This morning, there were 1,771 homes available for sale in Durham County — an increase of 123 listings, or about 7%. February saw 202 closings – a jump of almost 25%. Using February sales, we would sell our entire inventory of available homes in 8.8 months, which is an decline of 2.6 months from January.

In South Durham 642 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 91 homes. 65 sales closed in February, an increase of 19 closings.  This moves the adsorption rate down to 9.9 months – back to November numbers.

Again we saw a steadily increasing tide of listings coming onto the market. What was surprising, and a good surprise at that, was that closed sales kept pace with the listing tide. By comparison February 2011′s countywide numbers were 2,186 listings, 136 closings and south Durham saw 848 listings and 37 closings. Fewer homes are on the market compared to last year, but more of them are selling, which makes it a good trend to see in our housing market

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

Total Available Listings Total Closed Sales Adsorption Rate [in months] Avg Sale Price

Average Price per SF

Woodcroft 50 4 12.5 [+4.7] $125,875 $83 [-13]
Hope Valley Farms 69 2 34.5 [+21.7] $172,000 $102 [+5]
Woodlake 21 2 10.5 [-1.5] $183,680 $103 [-23]
Parkwood 12 3 4.0 [-0.8] $98,359 $69 [+5]
Chancellors Ridge 15 3 5.0 [-6.0] $241,000 $115 [+4]
Grandale 3 0 3.0 $383,800 $105
Audubon Park 9 2 4.5 [-3.5] $189,300 $85 [-10]
Falconbridge 10 0 N/A N/A N/A
Fairfield 9 3 3.0 $306,187 $95
Lochside 6 3 2.0 $160,000 $95
Davis Park 12 3 4.0 133,300 $106
Marydell Estates 1 0 N/A N/A N/A

 

For some overall numbers, the average in south Durham was $105 per sf with the highest neighborhoods being Blenheim Woods [1 sale at $173 per sf], The Oaks  [1 sale at $174 per sf], and Hope Valley West [1 sale at $170 per sf. The lowest neighborhoods were Forest View [1 sale at $26 per sf], University Estates [1 sale at $49 per sf], and Forestwood [1 sales at $61 per sf]

As we noted above, this is all a part of the normal (and somewhat stronger) real estate cycle. Everything we have seen points to a more stable real estate cycle in 2012. Listings will continue to come into the market for the next few months as more people try to time the Spring market. Closed sales will probably be even or slightly improved, but start to really pick up in April as the weather starts to turn.

Now is a good time to lay the foundations of your own real estate plans for 2012. Whether you are buying or selling, preparation now will lead to opportunities for success later in the year. If you would like to hear more about where the market is heading, or just want to know what your own home is worth, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Have a good March.

August Housing Stats For Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms, Lochside And Elsewhere In Durham

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

So far, the summer months have been very good to the Durham housing market. Let’s see if August can keep up the pace.

For all of Durham County there were 2,081 homes listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of over over 100 listings. August saw 277 contracts close, a gain of 20 closings. Using August figures, it would take 7.5 months to work through our current inventory which puts us almost back to June’s numbers. An adsorption rate between six and eight months is generally considered a balanced market, so overall Durham is in pretty good shape.

In South Durham 735 homes were listed for sale at the end of August – another decline of 69 homes. 91 sales closed in August, a drop of 12 closings. It would only 7.6 months like August to work our way through all the available homes, which, as I noted above, puts South Durham firmly in the balanced market range.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

Total Available Listings Total Closed Sales Adsorption Rate [in months] Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft 59 9 6.6 [-0.8] $180,711
97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms 61 9 6.8 [-3.2] $217,444
96% of list price
Woodlake 19 5 3.8 [-1.0] $203,500
96% of list price
Parkwood 24 2 12.0 [+5.7] $131,500
87% of list price
Chancellors Ridge 19 1 19.0 [+13.0] $299,980
100% of list price
Grandale 3 2 1.5 [-1.5] $279,500
96% of list price
Audubon Park 13 2 6.5 [-5.5] $210,500
99% of list price
Falconbridge 14 2 7.0 $171,750
95% of list price
Fairfield 14 0 N/A N/A
Lochside 9 0 N/A N/A
Marydell Estates 2 0 N/A N/A

[Remember how Penrith had 4 closings in July? Zero in August]

August continued the pattern of solid summer sales. Most importantly, as homes sold in August [and June and July], more sellers did not step up to replace them. This allowed us to work down some of that inventory and keep adsorption rates and prices fairly strong. The real notable exception to that is Parkwood, which is continuing its string of terrible months. I still believe that things will improve in Parkwood as the Revere Road construction winds up, but there is a lot of recovery to do there.

What does the future hold? Well at some point this Fall we will see sales drop off and the market settle towards its winter slumber. That might happen in September, although October is more likely

There is still time, but not much, to take advantage of this improved homebuying season. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you
in October.

A Great New Listing In University Estates

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

I wanted to introduce you to my newest listing. this great home in University Estates has all the quiet and seclusion of living in the country, but is just minutes from Duke, Southpoint and RTP! With 4 bedrooms and almost 2,000 square feet of space, this is a great home to expand into. Plus, with a list price of only $115,000, it’s a great bargain!

Hit the link for more details on this great home.

We’ll be holding an Open house to celebrate this new lsiting on Sunday, August 28th from 3-5PM. We’d love to see you then, or if you can’t come out them, call or email me and we’ll arrange a showing.

A Survey Where #8 Is Nothing To Sneeze At

Thursday, August 4th, 2011

CNBC published a slideshow earlier this week — 10 Cities Virtually Untouched By The Housing Bust. It’s a quick overview of several small towns that have been little affected by the housing bust. Durham is #8, which is something to crow about [Fayetteville is #1].

It’s nice to get good press, but I’d like to see this analysis taken to the next level. The CNBC piece has the “change from national peak,” which is their attempt to track how far that market has fallen since the summit. I’d like to see someone compare that to how far that market rose during the housing boom. I’m pretty certain that most of these markets didn’t see a big rise during the boom, didn’t have an overheated housing market, and therefore didn’t crash. I know that is true for us, and probably Fayetteville – I can’t speak for the rest of those markets.

BTW, if you don’t like slideshows, a more readable list is at Agent Genius.

* Official Triangle Housing Numbers From Triangle MLS

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

If you have seen any national housing news, you know February was a rough month for housing in the US. We’ve also looked at the local housing numbers and, while we saw some reason to hope, they weren’t so rosy either. Earlier this week, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service posted the “official” figures for the Triangle’s counties for February 2011.

Here’s the numbers for our local counties

* The End Of An Era In Durham

Saturday, March 19th, 2011

One of Durham’s iconic restaurants closed its doors last Friday as Dillard’s BBQ ended a 58 year run last Friday. In several interviews, Wilma Dillard indicated that the economy forced her decision to close the Fayetteville Road institution. Dillard’s was the second oldest Bar-B-Q restaurant in the Bull City having opened a year after the venerable Bullock’s

Bull City Rising has an excellent interview with Wilma Dillard and many of her customers where Dillard talks both about the restaurant and what she hopes will be in her future. Go read it — I couldn’t say it better.

* February Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

With the nice weather this week, most of our flowers and shrubs have started to sprout. Did February bring the same kind of promising shoots as my shrubbery? Well, yes, but not in the way you might think. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

For all of Durham County there were 2,186 homes listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 5%. 136 sales closed in February, an drop of almost 13%. Using February figures, it would take 16.1 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.8 months.

In South Durham (*) 848 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 14%. 37 sales closed in February, a drop of 22% from February numbers. It would take 22.9 Februarys to work our way through all the available homes, an increase of 7.1 months.

February showed a second month of decline in houses sold. Some of this is expected, since February is a short month. Still, the drop in South Durham sales is something we should pay special attention to in the coming months.

This month’s figures also show one of the weaknesses in looking at adsorption rate. Buyers and sellers both entered the market in February. When a seller enters the market, you see it immediately as there is an active listing. When a buyer enters the market, however, there is a delay of 2-3 months as the buyer finds a new property and the transaction works its way to closing. So when the market recovers, one might expect the adsorption rate to spike a bit as sellers enter the market, then drop as the buyers “catch up.” It’s far too early to
predict that here, but we shouldn’t panic about those scary high adsorption rates either.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

Total Available Listings Total Closed Sales Adsorption Rate [in months] Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft 76 2 38.0 [+16.7] $165,500
97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms 72 3 24.0 [+12.8] $126,867
91% of list price
Woodlake 25 2 12.5 155,750
97% of list price
Parkwood 30 0 N/A N/A
Chancellors Ridge 22 0 N/A N/A
Grandale 6 1 6.0 [-1.0] $330,000
100% of list price
Audubon Park 11 0 N/A N/A
The Hills at Southpoint 5 2 2.5 [+1.5] $466,990
100% of list price

As we noted above, many new listings came on the market this month — Woodcroft +12, Hope Valley Farms +16, Woodlake +11, Chancellor’s Ridge +7 — and that is pushing adsorption rates through the roof. It will take another month or two before the buyers who came out in February translate into closed sales.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

* Happy Birthday Durham County!

Monday, February 28th, 2011

Endangered Durham reminded us today that February 28 is the 130th birthday of Durham County. On this day in 1831, Orange and Wake counties were divided and Durham county was formed between them. Before 1831, the city of Durham was mainly known as a sleepy town and train station. Afterward it would be a county seat and eventually become the fourth largest city in North Carolina.

Happy Birthday, Durham!

* January Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, February 1st, 2011

I don’t know about you, but I’m about done with winter. It’s cold, the snow is a pain, and houses don’t sell like they do in the Spring. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s look at the January numbers

For all of Durham County there were 2,080 homes listed for sale at the end of January – an increase of 8%. 156 sales closed in January, an drop of almost 20%. Using January figures, it would take 13.3 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.9 months. Compared to last 2010, however, this is a pretty big step forward [January 2010: 1,896 listings, 116 closings, adsorption rate 16.3]

In South Durham (*) 743 homes were listed for sale at the end of January. 47 sales closed in January, which means that it would take 15.8 Januarys to work our way through all the available homes.

To keep our 27713 comparisons for one final month — January 2011 listings: 457 compared to 422 in December and 335 in January 2010. January 2011 closings: 25 compared to 35 in December and 24 in January 2010. so our sales are consistent with last year, but we have more inventory to work through.

Why do sales drop in January? In many ways it is a mirror image of the problems in December. We said last month that people don’t like to close and move in December. Well, generally the holidays mean that they don’t have time to look at property either. That lack of shopping and making offers in December plays through as a lack of closings in January. If you want to see how the 2011 housing market is going to look in Durham, you’re going to have to wait for the February [and honestly, March] figures.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

Total Available Listings Total Closed Sales Adsorption Rate [in months] Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft 64 3 21.3 [+7.5] $144,033

97% of list price

Hope Valley Farms 56 5 11.2 [+3.6] $201,680

95% of list price

Woodlake 14 0 N/A N/A
Parkwood 31 1 31 [+21.7] $132,100

94% of list price

Chancellors Ridge 15 0 N/A N/A
Grandale 7 1 7.0 $466,900

97% of list price

Audubon Park 8 1 8.0 $200,000

100% of list price

The Hills at Southpoint 3 3 1.0 $490,330

100% of list price

As is usual in slow months, sales tend to congregate in the larger neighborhoods — Hope Valley Farms, Woodcroft and Parkwood [although Parkwood did not hold up its end in January]. The Hills at Southpoint also showed that there is some interest in new construction, which is a good sign for our local market.

Last month we said there would be some improvement in January 2011 compared to January 2010 — we saw that. Agents have also seen more activity in January. More properties are being shown and it feels like the market locally is improving. We’ll see in February and march whether these perceptions have any basis in reality. When we do, you’ll see it here.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

* Buying Still Beats Renting in Durham – Raleigh

Thursday, January 27th, 2011

The Movity folks have worked up a nice maps for Trulia looking at the “Rent vs. Buy” question. It compares the median rental rate against the median purchase price for homes in several major markets and them modifies for the foreclosure rate, job prospects and population. Here is the info for all cities nationwide, but I wanted to point out what they think about our neck of the woods.

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