Bull City Real Estate -- Homes in Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Has The Durham Housing Market Hit Bottom? Maybe.

July 30th, 2011

Wanted to call your attention to an article in Triangle Business Journal [Experts: Triangle real estate at bottom]. It reports on the Triangle Business Journal’s “Tomorrow’s Real Estate” roundtable, which was held yesterday morning.

Based on the title, one would assume that it was a comprehensive review and analysis of the Triangle real estate market.That’s certainly what was reported in the lead;

Triangle real estate markets have hit rock bottom, but there’s no clear time frame when a recovery will begin.

That’s the consensus that emerged during a discussion involving five real estate experts who addressed Triangle Business Journal’s “Tomorrow’s Real Estate” roundtable Thursday morning

Unfortunately, that really wasn’t the case. Take a look at the “real estate experts;”

John Linderman, president and COO of Grubb & Ellis/Thomas Linderman Graham — a commercial real estate broker
Beth Trahos, a land-use lawyer with the Smith Moore Leatherwood — a commercial real estate attorney
Tom Anhut, group president for national home building company Toll Brothers — a homebuilder
Jeff Benson, a partner with Kilpatrick Townsend — a general corporate attorney
John Pharr, senior vice president of Regency Centers’ Southeast Division — a builder and operator of strip malls

While all of these people are quite competent in their own fields, it’s easy to note the lack of experts on residential property [with the exception of Mr Anhut, of course] and small scale retail. This is a great panel for looking the future profitability of projects like University Marketplace, 751 South, Brier Creek and the like. To get the full real estate picture , however, one needs to know the answer to questions like these;

Most reports say that banks are holding onto millions of foreclosed homes. When/how are the banks going to release these homes onto the market?
The biggest challenge in real estate today, both commercial and residential is financing. Is there any prospect of banks returning to rational standards and practices [not crazy 2005 stuff, just normal practices] in approving loans?
What is the market for small commercial projects? Will there be a time in the near future when one could build a small apartment building, stand-alone business facility [say an urgent care] or 3-4 store retail complex profitably?

To be fair, the roundtable was run by Triangle Business Journal, and they probably designed it to deliberately focus on large scale commercial real estate. You can’t then, however, say in the next breath that you are talking about all Triangle real estate. That’s like getting a group of neurosurgeons together and having a roundtable on “The Human Body” If TBJ wants a comprehensive overview of Triangle real estate, I’d encourage them to switch one of the attorneys for an expert in resale homes and/or a mortgage expert. That would give a fuller picture of the market.

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A Blast From The Past Of South Durham

July 23rd, 2011

Endangered Durham has been working it’s way down University Drive and 15-501 during July. There are some great entries and pictures about some of the icons [both past and present] of south Durham. Here’s a link to some of my favorites;

Endangered Durham is a great resource for the history of Durham’s places. It’s on my daily reading list, and I’d encourage anyone who wants to learn about Durham to visit often

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* June Housing Stats For Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms, Lochside And Elsewhere In Durham

July 2nd, 2011

Hey, want to see some good real estate numbers? Wait just a minute.

For all of Durham County there were 2326 homes listed for sale at the end of June – an decrease of about 160 listings. 347 sales closed in June, another 20% increase. Using June figures, it would take 6.7 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 2.6 months. We do normally expect to see our numbers recover in the summer, but these are really strong numbers no matter what month you are looking at. For June at least, Durham’s real estate market could even be called balanced.

In South Durham 872 homes were listed for sale at the end of June – a decline of 128 homes. 147 sales closed in June, an increase of 10%, another month of solid gains from the Winter. It would only 5.9 months like June to work our way through all the available homes, which is almost half the same total from May. In fact, 5.9 months would, just barely, push the south Durham market into seller’s market territory.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	89	6	14.8 [+3.3]	$267,917 99% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	74	19	3.9 [-3.6]	$208,116 97% of list price
Woodlake	27	5	5.4[-2.4]	$196,900 97% of list price
Parkwood	27	10	2.7 [-12.8]	$133.050 92% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	24	4	6.0 [-0.8]	$237,500 94% of list price
Grandale	4	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	10	1	10.0 [+0.0]	$204,000 102% of list price
Falconbridge	17	2	8.5 [+10.5]	$156,250 100% of list price
Fairfield	14	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	13	2	6.5 [+2.2]	$242,450 96% of list price
Marydell Estates	3	1	3.0	$460,000 94% of list price

Overall, these numbers are amazingly good. Listing inventory is shrinking, closed sales are significantly higher and, in most places, sales prices are holding up. When you look closer, however, there are some concerning spots. In particular, Parkwood deserves some attention. While many homes sold in Parkwood this month, it required some serious price concessions to make those sales close. This might simply be the last echos of the Revere Road construction, or it might be a long term trend. The next few months will tell which is more true.

Another item to note for the future is that several other communities sold at a discount this month. chancellors Ridge and Marydell Estates both saw sales at just 94% of list. That might be a reflection of the low volume of sales in both places, but it is still worth paying attention to.

There is still time to take advantage of this improved homebuying season. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Happy Independence Day.

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* Come to My Open House this Saturday!

June 17th, 2011

If you are hitting the yard sale circuit tomorrow morning, take a moment to stop by my Open House. From 10AM until 1PM I will be at my new listing at 5508 Grand Mesa Drive. This beautiful three bedroom home in Barbee Meadows can be your sanctuary from the rest of the busy world. Sit in your secluded back yard and enjoy the fountains and koi pond, but still be just minutes away from Southpoint, downtown Durham and Chapel Hill when you do want to go out.

Please come by and visit us tomorrow morning between 10AM and 1PM. We look forward to seeing you!

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* Happy 100th Birthday, IBM!

June 16th, 2011

[Originally posted on our sister site -- Relocation Durham]

A century ago, three companies merged to form IBM. while many of us only know IBM for things like Watson [the computer that won on Jeopardy], IBM has worked on everything from cheese slicers to automated test scorers [those bubble sheets started at IBM] to bar code scanners to LEED certified green data centers. If there was a business innovation in the past century, IBM was probably a part of it somewhere.

More importantly to us, IBM was also one of the first tenants of the Research Triangle Park. It’s been almost 50 years since IBM announced plans for their 400 acre, 600,000 square foot facility to be built in RTP, and they have been a leader in developing the Park ever since. As we envision the RTP of the 21st Century, it would be hard to picture the Park without IBM.

For some more information, here’s IBM’s commemorative website. Better yet, take a look at this video they posted on YouTube

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* May Housing Stats For Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms, Lochside And Elsewhere In Durham

June 4th, 2011

Apologies for the delay in getting this out — it’s been a busy week. Good busy, but busy nonetheless.

For all of Durham County there were 2491 homes listed for sale at the end of May – an decrease of 90 listings. 268 sales closed in April, another 20% increase. Using May figures, it would take 9.3 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 1.9 months [and almost 7 months since February]. While this kind of improvement is expected this time of year, it is a reassuring sign for the Durham housing market.

In South Durham an even 1000 homes were listed for sale at the end of May – a decline of 46 homes. 96 sales closed in April, an increase of 10%, which is another gain from the February doldrums. It would take 10.4 months like May to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 1.5 months, and a drop of 12.5 months since February.

Again, these trends are somewhat expected as February was in the dark of winter, and summertime usually brings out buyers. But given the news we constantly hear in the national media, it is reassuring to see Durham continue to buck the trend.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	92	8	11.5 [+4.8]	$202,488 98% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	83	11	7.5 [-6.1]	$183,662 98% of list price
Woodlake	31	4	7.8 [-3.9]	$189,110 98% of list price
Parkwood	31	2	15.5 [-3.0]	$118,500 92% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	27	4	6.8 [-23.2]	$246,929 98% of list price
Grandale	6	1	6.0	332,000 99% of list price
Audubon Park	10	1	10.0 [+1.0]	$224,000 98% of list price
Falconbridge	19	1	19 [+12.0]	$320,000 97% of list price
Fairfield	11	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	17	4	4.3	$157,000 96% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	0	N/A	N/A

Most neighborhoods saw some recovery last month. Notable exceptions were Woodcroft, which probably is just the flip side of their amazing April, and Parkwood, which has had a second month of weak sales. The repairs to Revere Road probably have something to do with this, as buyers simply don’t want to deal with that hassle when looking at houses.

Last month we noted that several neighborhoods saw a drop in the sale price/list price ratio. This month saw a recovery in that stat except in Parkwood. Again the repairs on Revere might have forced sellers to discount in order to sell their homes. Prices firming up is another sign that the Durham market is bucking the national trend. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you in July.

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* Think You Can’t Afford A Durham Home?

May 22nd, 2011

Think you can’t afford a Durham home? Right now, there are 95 homes in Durham listed for less than $50,000! With an FHA loan you would need $1,750 as a down payment, then have loan payments of less than $400 per month!

See for yourself how $50,000 could make you a Durham homeowner! If you would like more info on any of these properties, send me an email and we’ll get you started on your first home!

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* IMAX — Coming Soon To A Theater Near You

May 16th, 2011

This Friday’s premier of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will be extra special for south Durham as it is the Grand Opening for Southpoint Cinema’s new IMAX screen. While the theater has not announced a complete set of show times, the 7PM showing is the official opening of the screen. Southpoint’s new IMAX theater is the third in the Triangle and the first in Durham — the other two are the Regal Crossroads Stadium 20 in Cary and the Marbles Kids Museum in Raleigh.

Want to get into the first showing for free? There are two ways. Stone Theatres [the owners of Southpoint Cinemas] will be giving away free tickets to the first 200 people in line to catch the first showing on Friday. If you can’t stand in line for hours, go to triangle.com. There are some hoops to go through, but they are giving away a set of free ticket every day until Thursday.

An IMAX theater will be a great addition to Durham, We hope to see you there!

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* April Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Fairfield and Elsewhere in Durham

May 1st, 2011

Normally I would try to come up with something witty to lead off the monthly stats article, but I admit I’m uninspired this month. Let’s go straight to the numbers shall we?

For all of Durham County there were 2581 homes listed for sale at the end of April – an increase of a couple percent. 230 sales closed in April, an increase of 22% [that makes an increase of over 60% since February]. Using April figures, it would take 11.2 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 2.2 months [and almost 5 months since February].

In South Durham (*) 1046 homes were listed for sale at the end of April – an increase of just 2%. 88 sales closed in April, an increase of 27%, and more than double February’s total. It would take 11.9 months like April to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 3 months, and a drop of 11 months since February.

As predicted, the surge of homes entering the market has moderated and the buyers who entered the market in February are starting to close on their new homes. Don’t get me wrong — these numbers have plenty of room for improvement. Normally we would like to see adsorption rates down in the 6-8 month range, but compared to earlier this year this is a drastic improvement

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	94	14	6.7 [-10.0]	$222,464 98% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	95	7	13.6 [-2.1]	$165,875 93% of list price
Woodlake	35	3	11.7 [-5.3]	$195,000 97% of list price
Parkwood	37	2	18.5 [+2.5]	$117,000 93% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	30	1	30.0	$249,000 96% of list price
Grandale	7	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	9	1	9 [-3.0]	$200,000 94% of list price
Falconbridge	21	3	7 [+0.3]	$276,333 95% of list price
Fairfield	12	5	2.4	$331,300 97% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	1	4 [0.0]	$389,900 100% of list price

At the neighborhood level the numbers are uneven — Woodcroft, for example, had an amazing month while Parkwood barely nudged the needle. In fact, Parkwood didn’t even keep it’s place in the “big 3″ as Fairlield saw seven closings in April.

[As an aside -- how much did losing the library hurt Parkwood home values? While it was in Parkwood there was a nice light commercial anchor right inside the community. now there are some small stores and offices, but nothing to really anchor the community. Please share your thoughts in the comments]

Where do we go from here? As I said above, these numbers area vast improvement from earlier this year, but they still have a ways to go. I expect we will see some improvement in May and June, but noting like we’ve seen in March and April. If we are lucky, this will allow us to work through some of the excess inventory and bring the overall market close to balance.

One other thing to watch out for as we move forward is the ratio of sale to list price. In previous months that has been generally been around 97-98%, but in April we saw several communities in the 93-94% range. There could be several reasons for this, and some of them are good news, so it is something we will keep an eye on.

As you can see in the April sales numbers, homes are still selling in south Durham. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Have a good May.

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* March Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

April 1st, 2011

March Madness ended for most people last weekend with losses by Duke and UNC. Did March’s housing numbers fall like the Tar Heels and Blue Devils? It’s a complicated picture, but I think you will like what you see.

For all of Durham County there were 2,527 homes listed for sale at the end of March – an increase of 15%. 188 sales closed in March, an increase of 38%. Using March figures, it would take 13.4 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 2.7 months [and takes us back to January's adsorption rate].

In South Durham (*) 1030 homes were listed for sale at the end of March – an increase of 21% [and a 35% total increase from January]. 69 sales closed in March, an increase of 86%. It would take 14.9 months like March to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 8 months, which again takes us back to about January’s number.

Last month we talked about how buyers and sellers both entered the market in February, but buyers take a month to show up in stats. That is exactly what we are seeing here. The number of closings dramatically increased in March, which improved the numbers despite an enormous number of homes coming on the market.

I would expect something similar in April’s numbers. The number of new listings should start to moderate as the “Spring surge” starts to end. sales numbers, however, continue to remain strong as the buyers who started to come out in February and March continue to find and buy homes.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	100	6	16.7 [-21.3]	$159,167 99% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	94	6	15.7 [-8.3]	$165,875 97% of list price
Woodlake	34	2	17 [+5.5]	200,450 97% of list price
Parkwood	32	2	16	133,250 99% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	32	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	7	1	7.0 [+1.0]	$274,000 98% of list price
Audubon Park	12	1	12	200,000 98% of list price
Falconbridge	20	3	6.7	277,633 98% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	1	4	$266,362 89% of list price

As noted above, the number of new listings in some neighborhoods is truly staggering — Woodcroft +24 and Hope Valley Farms +22 being the big standouts. This is also the second month in a row that saw no closings in Chancellor’s Ridge [although 10 new listings came in]. Also, those of you who remember how Audubon Park homes were selling like hotcakes last summer — well,
2011 has not seen the same sales figures.

One important thing to take away from these numbers is that homes are still selling in south Durham. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you in May.

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