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* May Housing Stats For Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms, Lochside And Elsewhere In Durham

Saturday, June 4th, 2011

Apologies for the delay in getting this out — it’s been a busy week. Good busy, but busy nonetheless.

For all of Durham County there were 2491 homes listed for sale at the end of May – an decrease of 90 listings. 268 sales closed in April, another 20% increase. Using May figures, it would take 9.3 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 1.9 months [and almost 7 months since February]. While this kind of improvement is expected this time of year, it is a reassuring sign for the Durham housing market.

In South Durham an even 1000 homes were listed for sale at the end of May – a decline of 46 homes. 96 sales closed in April, an increase of 10%, which is another gain from the February doldrums. It would take 10.4 months like May to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 1.5 months, and a drop of 12.5 months since February.

Again, these trends are somewhat expected as February was in the dark of winter, and summertime usually brings out buyers. But given the news we constantly hear in the national media, it is reassuring to see Durham continue to buck the trend.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	92	8	11.5 [+4.8]	$202,488 98% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	83	11	7.5 [-6.1]	$183,662 98% of list price
Woodlake	31	4	7.8 [-3.9]	$189,110 98% of list price
Parkwood	31	2	15.5 [-3.0]	$118,500 92% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	27	4	6.8 [-23.2]	$246,929 98% of list price
Grandale	6	1	6.0	332,000 99% of list price
Audubon Park	10	1	10.0 [+1.0]	$224,000 98% of list price
Falconbridge	19	1	19 [+12.0]	$320,000 97% of list price
Fairfield	11	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	17	4	4.3	$157,000 96% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	0	N/A	N/A

Most neighborhoods saw some recovery last month. Notable exceptions were Woodcroft, which probably is just the flip side of their amazing April, and Parkwood, which has had a second month of weak sales. The repairs to Revere Road probably have something to do with this, as buyers simply don’t want to deal with that hassle when looking at houses.

Last month we noted that several neighborhoods saw a drop in the sale price/list price ratio. This month saw a recovery in that stat except in Parkwood. Again the repairs on Revere might have forced sellers to discount in order to sell their homes. Prices firming up is another sign that the Durham market is bucking the national trend. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you in July.

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* Think You Can’t Afford A Durham Home?

Sunday, May 22nd, 2011

Think you can’t afford a Durham home? Right now, there are 95 homes in Durham listed for less than $50,000! With an FHA loan you would need $1,750 as a down payment, then have loan payments of less than $400 per month!

See for yourself how $50,000 could make you a Durham homeowner! If you would like more info on any of these properties, send me an email and we’ll get you started on your first home!

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* IMAX — Coming Soon To A Theater Near You

Monday, May 16th, 2011

This Friday’s premier of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will be extra special for south Durham as it is the Grand Opening for Southpoint Cinema’s new IMAX screen. While the theater has not announced a complete set of show times, the 7PM showing is the official opening of the screen. Southpoint’s new IMAX theater is the third in the Triangle and the first in Durham — the other two are the Regal Crossroads Stadium 20 in Cary and the Marbles Kids Museum in Raleigh.

Want to get into the first showing for free? There are two ways. Stone Theatres [the owners of Southpoint Cinemas] will be giving away free tickets to the first 200 people in line to catch the first showing on Friday. If you can’t stand in line for hours, go to triangle.com. There are some hoops to go through, but they are giving away a set of free ticket every day until Thursday.

An IMAX theater will be a great addition to Durham, We hope to see you there!

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* April Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Fairfield and Elsewhere in Durham

Sunday, May 1st, 2011

Normally I would try to come up with something witty to lead off the monthly stats article, but I admit I’m uninspired this month. Let’s go straight to the numbers shall we?

For all of Durham County there were 2581 homes listed for sale at the end of April – an increase of a couple percent. 230 sales closed in April, an increase of 22% [that makes an increase of over 60% since February]. Using April figures, it would take 11.2 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 2.2 months [and almost 5 months since February].

In South Durham (*) 1046 homes were listed for sale at the end of April – an increase of just 2%. 88 sales closed in April, an increase of 27%, and more than double February’s total. It would take 11.9 months like April to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 3 months, and a drop of 11 months since February.

As predicted, the surge of homes entering the market has moderated and the buyers who entered the market in February are starting to close on their new homes. Don’t get me wrong — these numbers have plenty of room for improvement. Normally we would like to see adsorption rates down in the 6-8 month range, but compared to earlier this year this is a drastic improvement

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	94	14	6.7 [-10.0]	$222,464 98% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	95	7	13.6 [-2.1]	$165,875 93% of list price
Woodlake	35	3	11.7 [-5.3]	$195,000 97% of list price
Parkwood	37	2	18.5 [+2.5]	$117,000 93% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	30	1	30.0	$249,000 96% of list price
Grandale	7	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	9	1	9 [-3.0]	$200,000 94% of list price
Falconbridge	21	3	7 [+0.3]	$276,333 95% of list price
Fairfield	12	5	2.4	$331,300 97% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	1	4 [0.0]	$389,900 100% of list price

At the neighborhood level the numbers are uneven — Woodcroft, for example, had an amazing month while Parkwood barely nudged the needle. In fact, Parkwood didn’t even keep it’s place in the “big 3″ as Fairlield saw seven closings in April.

[As an aside -- how much did losing the library hurt Parkwood home values? While it was in Parkwood there was a nice light commercial anchor right inside the community. now there are some small stores and offices, but nothing to really anchor the community. Please share your thoughts in the comments]

Where do we go from here? As I said above, these numbers area vast improvement from earlier this year, but they still have a ways to go. I expect we will see some improvement in May and June, but noting like we’ve seen in March and April. If we are lucky, this will allow us to work through some of the excess inventory and bring the overall market close to balance.

One other thing to watch out for as we move forward is the ratio of sale to list price. In previous months that has been generally been around 97-98%, but in April we saw several communities in the 93-94% range. There could be several reasons for this, and some of them are good news, so it is something we will keep an eye on.

As you can see in the April sales numbers, homes are still selling in south Durham. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Have a good May.

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* March Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Friday, April 1st, 2011

March Madness ended for most people last weekend with losses by Duke and UNC. Did March’s housing numbers fall like the Tar Heels and Blue Devils? It’s a complicated picture, but I think you will like what you see.

For all of Durham County there were 2,527 homes listed for sale at the end of March – an increase of 15%. 188 sales closed in March, an increase of 38%. Using March figures, it would take 13.4 months to work through our current inventory which is a decline of 2.7 months [and takes us back to January's adsorption rate].

In South Durham (*) 1030 homes were listed for sale at the end of March – an increase of 21% [and a 35% total increase from January]. 69 sales closed in March, an increase of 86%. It would take 14.9 months like March to work our way through all the available homes, a decline of 8 months, which again takes us back to about January’s number.

Last month we talked about how buyers and sellers both entered the market in February, but buyers take a month to show up in stats. That is exactly what we are seeing here. The number of closings dramatically increased in March, which improved the numbers despite an enormous number of homes coming on the market.

I would expect something similar in April’s numbers. The number of new listings should start to moderate as the “Spring surge” starts to end. sales numbers, however, continue to remain strong as the buyers who started to come out in February and March continue to find and buy homes.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	100	6	16.7 [-21.3]	$159,167 99% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	94	6	15.7 [-8.3]	$165,875 97% of list price
Woodlake	34	2	17 [+5.5]	200,450 97% of list price
Parkwood	32	2	16	133,250 99% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	32	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	7	1	7.0 [+1.0]	$274,000 98% of list price
Audubon Park	12	1	12	200,000 98% of list price
Falconbridge	20	3	6.7	277,633 98% of list price
Marydell Estates	4	1	4	$266,362 89% of list price

As noted above, the number of new listings in some neighborhoods is truly staggering — Woodcroft +24 and Hope Valley Farms +22 being the big standouts. This is also the second month in a row that saw no closings in Chancellor’s Ridge [although 10 new listings came in]. Also, those of you who remember how Audubon Park homes were selling like hotcakes last summer — well,
2011 has not seen the same sales figures.

One important thing to take away from these numbers is that homes are still selling in south Durham. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want to see some of the homes available, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you in May.

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* Official Triangle Housing Numbers From Triangle MLS

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

If you have seen any national housing news, you know February was a rough month for housing in the US. We’ve also looked at the local housing numbers and, while we saw some reason to hope, they weren’t so rosy either. Earlier this week, the Triangle Multiple Listing Service posted the “official” figures for the Triangle’s counties for February 2011.

Here’s the numbers for our local counties

Tags: Durham, housing stats

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* The End Of An Era In Durham

Saturday, March 19th, 2011

One of Durham’s iconic restaurants closed its doors last Friday as Dillard’s BBQ ended a 58 year run last Friday. In several interviews, Wilma Dillard indicated that the economy forced her decision to close the Fayetteville Road institution. Dillard’s was the second oldest Bar-B-Q restaurant in the Bull City having opened a year after the venerable Bullock’s

Bull City Rising has an excellent interview with Wilma Dillard and many of her customers where Dillard talks both about the restaurant and what she hopes will be in her future. Go read it — I couldn’t say it better.

Tags: Durham

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* February Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

With the nice weather this week, most of our flowers and shrubs have started to sprout. Did February bring the same kind of promising shoots as my shrubbery? Well, yes, but not in the way you might think. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

For all of Durham County there were 2,186 homes listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 5%. 136 sales closed in February, an drop of almost 13%. Using February figures, it would take 16.1 months to work through our current inventory which is an increase of 2.8 months.

In South Durham (*) 848 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 14%. 37 sales closed in February, a drop of 22% from February numbers. It would take 22.9 Februarys to work our way through all the available homes, an increase of 7.1 months.

February showed a second month of decline in houses sold. Some of this is expected, since February is a short month. Still, the drop in South Durham sales is something we should pay special attention to in the coming months.

This month’s figures also show one of the weaknesses in looking at adsorption rate. Buyers and sellers both entered the market in February. When a seller enters the market, you see it immediately as there is an active listing. When a buyer enters the market, however, there is a delay of 2-3 months as the buyer finds a new property and the transaction works its way to closing. So when the market recovers, one might expect the adsorption rate to spike a bit as sellers enter the market, then drop as the buyers “catch up.” It’s far too early to
predict that here, but we shouldn’t panic about those scary high adsorption rates either.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	76	2	38.0 [+16.7]	$165,500 97% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	72	3	24.0 [+12.8]	$126,867 91% of list price
Woodlake	25	2	12.5	155,750 97% of list price
Parkwood	30	0	N/A	N/A
Chancellors Ridge	22	0	N/A	N/A
Grandale	6	1	6.0 [-1.0]	$330,000 100% of list price
Audubon Park	11	0	N/A	N/A
The Hills at Southpoint	5	2	2.5 [+1.5]	$466,990 100% of list price

As we noted above, many new listings came on the market this month — Woodcroft +12, Hope Valley Farms +16, Woodlake +11, Chancellor’s Ridge +7 — and that is pushing adsorption rates through the roof. It will take another month or two before the buyers who came out in February translate into closed sales.

(*) We’re defining “south Durham” as an area in the southern part of Durham County with roughly the following borders: Starting with the North – Cornwallis Road between 15-501 and NC55. NC55 up to Riddle Road and Riddle/Ellis over to the Durham Freeway. Then, the Durham Freeway down to the county line. West along the Durham/Chatham line, then north along the Durham/Orange line to 15-501. follow 15-501 to Cornwallis Road to complete the circle. If you are a local MLS geek, that is MLS areas 100 through 106 plus area 107A.

Tags: Durham, housing stats

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* Happy Birthday Durham County!

Monday, February 28th, 2011

Endangered Durham reminded us today that February 28 is the 130th birthday of Durham County. On this day in 1831, Orange and Wake counties were divided and Durham county was formed between them. Before 1831, the city of Durham was mainly known as a sleepy town and train station. Afterward it would be a county seat and eventually become the fourth largest city in North Carolina.

Happy Birthday, Durham!

Tags: Durham

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* It’s A Beautiful Day For Durham’s Neighborhoods

Sunday, February 27th, 2011

One of the things that makes Durham great is that it has plenty of strong neighborhoods. From Eno Trace to Marydell to Parkwood to Hope Valley active neighborhoods and neighborhood associations have been one of the keys to strong sense of community and vitality of the Bull City.

Despite that, there has not been a website with a solid list of neighborhoods and how to reach them — until now. Earlier this month, Phillip Bost unveiled Durham Hoods, a semi-complete list of neighborhoods and their email mailing lists. Patrick believes that “Durham, NC is one of the top municipalities in terms of neighborhood electronic mailing lists per capita” and Durham Hoods is his attempt to prove it.

So, if you want to know from residents why Penrith [or most any other neighborhood] is a great place to live, Durham Hoods is a great place to start. If your neighborhood isn’t listed, let Patrick know. A good neighborhood contact list is an asset for all of us.

[edited to correct, Mr. Bost's first name.]

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