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March Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Monday, April 2nd, 2012

I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t fooled much today. Will the housing market play a trick on us this month? Let’s find out.

This morning, there were 2,015 homes available for sale in Durham County — an increase of 244 listings, or almost 15%. March saw 244 closings – a jump of about 20%. Using March sales, we would sell our entire inventory of available homes in 8.3 months, which is an decline of another half-month from February and almost three months from the start of the year.

In South Durham 804 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 162 homes, or about 24%. 72 sales closed in February, an increase of 7 closings. This moves the adsorption rate up to 11.2 months.

Durham as a whole kept up its torrid pace with solid increases on both listings and sales. In fact, it is pretty likely at this point that the county-wide market might actually be in balance for a large part of the summer. South Durham slipped a bit in that closings did not keep pace with the increased numbers of listings, but that could easily be a timing difference that will be fixed when we look at the April numbers. South Durham has a bad month here and there, but it has always snapped back.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price	Average Price per SF
Woodcroft	62	8	7.8 [-4.7]	$136,033	$95 [+12]
Hope Valley Farms	94	5	18.8 [-15.7]	$202,612	$107 [+5]
Woodlake	33	0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Parkwood	22	3	7.3 [+3.3]	$124,967	$106 [+36]
Chancellors Ridge	19	1	19.0 [+14]	$139,050	$88 [-27]
Grandale	6	1	6.0	$298,000	$95 [-10]
Audubon Park	12	2	6.0 [+1.5]	$200,000	$104 [+19]
Falconbridge	12	1	12.0	318,000	$149
Fairfield	10	1	10.0 [+7.0]	$325,000	$95
Lochside	9	0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Davis Park	13	2	6.5 [+2.5]	$172,625	$115 [+9]
Downing Creek	9	3	3.0	$354,833	$123

For some overall numbers, the average in south Durham was $110 [and increase of $5/sf] per sf with the highest neighborhoods being The Oaks [1 sale at $215 per sf], Chapelwood [1 sale at $194 per sf], and Southpoint Manor [1 sale at $154 per sf]. The lowest neighborhoods were Elliswood [1 sale at $35 per sf], Fisher Heights [1 sale at $37 per sf], and Lincoln Heights [1 sales at $40 per sf]

One of the things that is striking about these numbers is how Woodcroft and Hope Valley Farms are re-establishing themselves as the centers of the south Durham market. Woodcroft saw it’s total listings jump by 25%, yet it still shows a balanced market as closed sales doubled. Hope Valley Farms total listings jumped by 35%, but total closings couldn’t keep up [HVF closings were sour in February as well, so there is some improvement just not enough to keep me happy]. Parkwood, the traditional third center, saw its listings more than double in March [from 12 to 22]. With these changes, it looks like the local market is starting to return to the patterns we saw prior to the market crash. That would indeed be good news

It is still not too late to be a part of the real estate turnaround. Whether you are buying or selling, preparation now will lead to opportunities for success later in the year. If you would like to hear more about where the market is heading, or just want to know what your own home is worth, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. See you in May.

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February Housing States for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

As I write this, the thermometer just hit 80. Has the real estate market thawed as quickly as Winter did? Let’s take a look.

This morning, there were 1,771 homes available for sale in Durham County — an increase of 123 listings, or about 7%. February saw 202 closings – a jump of almost 25%. Using February sales, we would sell our entire inventory of available homes in 8.8 months, which is an decline of 2.6 months from January.

In South Durham 642 homes were listed for sale at the end of February – an increase of 91 homes. 65 sales closed in February, an increase of 19 closings. This moves the adsorption rate down to 9.9 months – back to November numbers.

Again we saw a steadily increasing tide of listings coming onto the market. What was surprising, and a good surprise at that, was that closed sales kept pace with the listing tide. By comparison February 2011′s countywide numbers were 2,186 listings, 136 closings and south Durham saw 848 listings and 37 closings. Fewer homes are on the market compared to last year, but more of them are selling, which makes it a good trend to see in our housing market

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price	Average Price per SF
Woodcroft	50	4	12.5 [+4.7]	$125,875	$83 [-13]
Hope Valley Farms	69	2	34.5 [+21.7]	$172,000	$102 [+5]
Woodlake	21	2	10.5 [-1.5]	$183,680	$103 [-23]
Parkwood	12	3	4.0 [-0.8]	$98,359	$69 [+5]
Chancellors Ridge	15	3	5.0 [-6.0]	$241,000	$115 [+4]
Grandale	3	0	3.0	$383,800	$105
Audubon Park	9	2	4.5 [-3.5]	$189,300	$85 [-10]
Falconbridge	10	0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Fairfield	9	3	3.0	$306,187	$95
Lochside	6	3	2.0	$160,000	$95
Davis Park	12	3	4.0	133,300	$106
Marydell Estates	1	0	N/A	N/A	N/A

For some overall numbers, the average in south Durham was $105 per sf with the highest neighborhoods being Blenheim Woods [1 sale at $173 per sf], The Oaks [1 sale at $174 per sf], and Hope Valley West [1 sale at $170 per sf. The lowest neighborhoods were Forest View [1 sale at $26 per sf], University Estates [1 sale at $49 per sf], and Forestwood [1 sales at $61 per sf]

As we noted above, this is all a part of the normal (and somewhat stronger) real estate cycle. Everything we have seen points to a more stable real estate cycle in 2012. Listings will continue to come into the market for the next few months as more people try to time the Spring market. Closed sales will probably be even or slightly improved, but start to really pick up in April as the weather starts to turn.

Now is a good time to lay the foundations of your own real estate plans for 2012. Whether you are buying or selling, preparation now will lead to opportunities for success later in the year. If you would like to hear more about where the market is heading, or just want to know what your own home is worth, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Have a good March.

Tags: Durham, housing stats

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Want To Know More About Durham Investment Real Estate?

Saturday, January 14th, 2012

As you might imagine, I have the opportunity to speak with many people about real estate investment. In 2012 I want to be more systematic about telling potential investors about the many solid investments that are out there, so I’ve set up a mailing list. If you would like to see some of the great investment property on the market, emailed about twice a week, please email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Also, if you would like to learn more about how real estate investing can be a way to build wealth, please email me and we can run through the numbers. With prices down and interest rates low, this might be the best opportunity to use real estate to build your financial future.

Tags: investment

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Out With The Old [Christmas Tree], In With The New

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

I mentioned in my last post that the BCRE Christmas tree is down — now I just need to get rid of it.

In Durham, residents who need to dispose of trees should place them at the curb on their normally scheduled trash collection day. trees should be cut in pieces if they are taller than 6 feet, and should be free of ornaments, tinsel, etc. It may take several days after your normal trash day for your tree to be collected.

Alternately, trees may be brought to the City’s Waste Disposal & Recycling Center at 2115 E. Club Blvd., Monday through Friday, 7:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., and Saturday, 7:30 a.m. Through March 2, there will be no charge for Christmas trees dropped off at the Center. as a final option, trees may be brought to the City’s Paper Shredding and E-Waste Event on Saturday, January 14 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. in the Sears parking lot at Northgate Mall. For more information about this event, visit http://durhamnc.gov/Pages/NNDetails.aspx?detailId=35.

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December Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Parkwood And Elsewhere In Durham

Sunday, January 1st, 2012

All the presents at the BCRE household have been put away, the tree has been, um, “retired,” and we are as ready as we are going to get to move into 2012, which is good since we don’t have a lot of choice. The last few months have been pretty decent for Durham real estate. Let’s see if we’re continuing to lay a good foundation for 2012.

When the ball dropped this morning, there were 1,617 homes available for sale in Durham County — a drop of just over 200 listings and a decline of about 15% since November 1. Again, this is not surprising, as many people take their homes off the market over the holidays. December saw 189 closings – an increase of 16 closings, which takes us back to the closing numbers of two months ago. Using December sales, we would sell our entire inventory of available homes in 8.6 months, which is an improvement of almost two months from November’s stat.

In South Durham 526 homes were listed for sale at the end of December – a drop of 85 homes and a total decline of about 25% from November 1. 52 sales closed in December, which is a drop of nine closings and, again, a drop of about 25% from November’s data. those equal drops leave the adsorption rate unchanged at 10.0 months, which makes it basically unchanged for three months in a row. It also makes December one of those unusual months where south Durham underperforms the county as a whole.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price	Average Price per SF
Woodcroft	38	6	6.3 [-10.0]	$160,833	$93
Hope Valley Farms	49	1	49 [+40.2]	$199,900	$108
Woodlake	10	1	10.0 [0.0]	$165,000	$133
Parkwood	15	3	5.0 [-1.1]	$128,633	$90
Chancellors Ridge	11	2	5.5 [0.0]	$349,500	$95
Grandale	3	0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	9	2	4.5 [-9.5]	$185,500	$92
Falconbridge	7	1	7.0 [+3.0]	$245,500	$125
Fairfield	11	2	5.5	$253,750	$125
Lochside	6	1	6.0	$173,000	$131
Davis Park	14	5	2.8	$129,520	$119
Marydell Estates	1	0	N/A	N/A

We’ve decided to track price per square foot in 2012 instead of sales price as a percentage of list price. For some overall numbers, the average in south Durham was $105 per sf with the highest neighborhoods being Villas at Culp Arbor [1 sale at $181 per sf], Windsor Commons [1 sale at $147 per sf], and Woodlake [1 sale at $133 per sf]. the lowest neighborhoods were Cedar Valley [1 foreclosure sold at $58 per sf], Darby Glen [1 sale at $74 per sf], and Stratford Lakes [3 sales at $89 per sf]

Again we saw a month of decent numbers showing both strength and the traditional winter declines. I’m hopeful that these figures for November and December signal that we have found a floor to build off of in 2012. January will probably show something similar, especially in the first half of the month, with more sellers starting to return to the market in the last half of January and into February. Weather might also have a role to play as a series of snow and ice events will move the numbers.

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November Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Hope Valley Farms, Parkwood And Elsewhere In Durham

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

It’s Christmastime. Our tree went up earlier this week, and is slowly filling with presents. Will November’s housing numbers be a great present? Or will it be the coal in Durham’s stocking? Let’s take a look

For all of Durham County there were 1,825 homes listed for sale at the end of November – a drop of just over 100 listings. October saw 173 contracts close, a drop of 17 closings. Using November figures, it would take 10.5 months to work through our current inventory, an increase of about 10 days from October.

In South Durham 611 homes were listed for sale at the end of November - a drop of just over 10%. 61 sales closed in November, again a drop of about 10% from October. It would take 10 months like November to work our way through all the available homes, which is a drop of just under a week from October’s figure.

So, over the past two months, we’ve seen a steady drop in the number of listings and a slightly larger drop in the number of closings, which leaves the adsorption rate just about even. This is normal for the winter months. As long as the absorption rate stays fairly steady, our local housing market is steady. Of course, we’d prefer it to be steady at a lower number, but recovery has to start somewhere.

Here’s the updated neighborhood information, with some of our new neighborhoods.

	Total Available Listings	Total Closed Sales	Adsorption Rate [in months]	Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft	49	3	6.3 [-10.2]	$167,433 95% of list price
Hope Valley Farms	53	6	8.8 [-20.2]	$165,167 97% of list price
Woodlake	10	1	10.0 [+3.5]	$219,000 97% of list price
Parkwood	20	3	6.6 [+3.3]	$101,667 95% of list price
Chancellors Ridge	11	2	5.5 [+1.5]	$249,950 98% of list price
Grandale	3	0	N/A	N/A
Audubon Park	14	1	14.0	$175,000 95% of list price
Falconbridge	8	2	4.0 [-7.0]	$197,500 95% of list price
Fairfield	11	0	N/A	N/A
Lochside	6	0	N/A	N/A
Marydell Estates	2	0	N/A	N/A

Last month, we noted that the total closings were spread out among severalneighborhoods instead of concentrating in the “Big 3.” That was also true in November, but not quite to the same extent. Hope Valley Farms, in particular, saw a nice jump in closings to put it back into a more usual set of figures. Also worth noting is Keystone Crossing, which had 8 closings in November.

December tends to be a lot like November with a slow decline in listings and a decline in closings. honestly, I don’t expect the numbers to change much until about February when all the “hibernators” start to come back into the market

There are still good reasons for having a home on the market today, even with the colder weather and the smaller pool of [more serious] buyers. If you are interested in seeing how your home would fare on the market, or just want a larger home for the new year, please send me an email and we’ll gladly get started. Happy Holidays.

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Happy Thanksgiving!

Thursday, November 24th, 2011

Before we tear into our own Thanksgiving feast, all of us at BCRE want to take a moment to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving. When we list the things we are thankful for, our faithful readership is certainly on that list. See you all after our post-dinner nap!

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It’s An Open House Weekend!

Sunday, October 23rd, 2011

For those of you out and about this afternoon, please visit my Open House at 3231 E Geer Street between 3PM and 5PM. If you do, you can look at this 2 bedroom/1 bath sitting on just under a half-acre of land. It’s got all the peace and quiet of the county, but just a short trip away from Duke, Research Triangle Park, and Brier Creek

Listed at $50,000, this could be a great opportunity for an investor or a first-time home buyer interested in converting a little effort into instant equity. I hope to see you there!

Here are some more details about 3231 E Geer Street

Tags: open house

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The Feds Want Your Ideas On Fixing The Housing Crisis

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

Last month the federal Housing Finance Agency [which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] sent out a Request for Information looking for ideas on how to deal with the excessively large inventory of foreclosed homes held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA. I sent my response off this evening and thought it might be a good springboard for discussion. It’s a bit long, but here goes;

[Here's the full RFI -- Request for Information - Enterprise/FHA REO Asset Disposition]

Last month the Federal Housing Finance Agency [FHFA] announced a request for information looking for new ideas and ways to reduce the inventory of foreclosed properties held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. In that RFP, you stated the following objectives:

reduce the REO portfolios of the Enterprises and FHA in a cost-effective manner;

reduce average loan loss severities to the Enterprises and FHA relative to individual

distressed property sales;

address property repair and rehabilitation needs;

respond to economic and real estate conditions in specific geographies;

assist in neighborhood and home price stabilization efforts; and

suggest analytic approaches to determine the appropriate disposition strategy for

individual properties, whether sale, rental, or, in certain instances, demolition.

Additionally, FHFA expressed a willingness to consider a variety of options including lease-purchase agreements and rental arrangements.

I appreciate FHFA’s willingness to explore different approaches to reduce their large inventory of properties. There is, however, no need to reinvent the wheel. There are thousands of real estate investors eagerly waiting to purchase those properties, rehab them and return them to the market either as rental property or through some form of sale – lease option, seller financed purchase and so on. Unfortunately, there are several obstacles placed in front of the real estate investor when they attempt to purchase government owned property. Some examples of these obstacles are:

Getting financing is especially hard for an investor. FHA could help by streamlining the process for FHA 203b and 203k loans. This would be especially helpful in selling properties which require large amounts of work to be habitable, a common problem with foreclosed property.

HUD and other government agencies have 30-day preference for owner-occupants. Reducing or removing this preference would allow investors to purchase properties faster and get them off the government’s books.

HUD and other government agencies have a rule requiring buyers own the property for 90 days before selling it [the "anti-flipping" rule]. reducing or eliminating this requirement makes properties more attractive for investors and would speed the sale of these properties.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have limits on how many mortgages an investor can have. Increasing or removing these limits would help investors obtain financing to purchase more government-owned property.

Removing these obstacles and actively encouraging real estate investment would cost the government almost no money, but would vastly increase the ability of investors to relieve the government of it’s excess property inventory, which would stabilize the housing market.

Thank you for taking the time to read my proposal.

What do you think? Would easing the restrictions on real estate investment spur a housing recovery? Or is there a better way? I look forward to hearing your comments.

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No Hurricane Can Stop A Weichert Open House!

Sunday, August 28th, 2011

With Irene working her way up towards New York, it’s time to step outside, take a look at the fallen branches and stop by one [or several] open houses! Here is the schedule for today’s Open Houses on the listings we’ve highlighted here at Bull City Real Estate.

	From 1-3PM today, stop by 100 Settlers Mill Road. This beautiful home is 2400 square feet of space just minutes away from Southpoint Mall, I-40 and Chapel Hill. Listed at $197,200 this is a great value for your home investment
From 2-4PM today, we’ll also be at 5508 Grand Mesa Drive. This beautiful home features an open sunroom and a landscaped backyard with a koi pond. Listed at $155,000, this home is a great balance of seclusion and quiet.
	Finally, from 3-5PM this afternoon, we’ll be at my new listing 3218 Oxford. This 4 bedroom home is tucked away in University Estates – a nice quiet community just north of Martin Luther King Parkway. Listed at $115,000, this is a great value for someone who needs a little space, but needs to be close to everything.

When you are out and about this afternoon, I really hope you will join us at one of our events.

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