Has The Durham Housing Market Hit Bottom? Maybe.
Saturday, July 30th, 2011Wanted to call your attention to an article in Triangle Business Journal [Experts: Triangle real estate at bottom]. It reports on the Triangle Business Journal’s “Tomorrow’s Real Estate” roundtable, which was held yesterday morning.
Based on the title, one would assume that it was a comprehensive review and analysis of the Triangle real estate market.That’s certainly what was reported in the lead;
Triangle real estate markets have hit rock bottom, but there’s no clear time frame when a recovery will begin.
That’s the consensus that emerged during a discussion involving five real estate experts who addressed Triangle Business Journal’s “Tomorrow’s Real Estate” roundtable Thursday morning
Unfortunately, that really wasn’t the case. Take a look at the “real estate experts;”
- John Linderman, president and COO of Grubb & Ellis/Thomas Linderman Graham — a commercial real estate broker
- Beth Trahos, a land-use lawyer with the Smith Moore Leatherwood — a commercial real estate attorney
- Tom Anhut, group president for national home building company Toll Brothers — a homebuilder
- Jeff Benson, a partner with Kilpatrick Townsend — a general corporate attorney
- John Pharr, senior vice president of Regency Centers’ Southeast Division — a builder and operator of strip malls
While all of these people are quite competent in their own fields, it’s easy to note the lack of experts on residential property [with the exception of Mr Anhut, of course] and small scale retail. This is a great panel for looking the future profitability of projects like University Marketplace, 751 South, Brier Creek and the like. To get the full real estate picture , however, one needs to know the answer to questions like these;
- Most reports say that banks are holding onto millions of foreclosed homes. When/how are the banks going to release these homes onto the market?
- The biggest challenge in real estate today, both commercial and residential is financing. Is there any prospect of banks returning to rational standards and practices [not crazy 2005 stuff, just normal practices] in approving loans?
- What is the market for small commercial projects? Will there be a time in the near future when one could build a small apartment building, stand-alone business facility [say an urgent care] or 3-4 store retail complex profitably?
To be fair, the roundtable was run by Triangle Business Journal, and they probably designed it to deliberately focus on large scale commercial real estate. You can’t then, however, say in the next breath that you are talking about all Triangle real estate. That’s like getting a group of neurosurgeons together and having a roundtable on “The Human Body” If TBJ wants a comprehensive overview of Triangle real estate, I’d encourage them to switch one of the attorneys for an expert in resale homes and/or a mortgage expert. That would give a fuller picture of the market.
