So . . . . August. Was it another month of gut-wrenching drops like the media lives for? Was is a small decline, like I predicted, or will it surprise us all and be a decent month? Let’s take a look.
For all of Durham County there were 2,419 homes listed for sale at the end of August – a drop of about 5%. Only 199 sales closed in August, a drop of about a third. Using August figures, it would take 12.2 months to work through our current inventory. That’s an increase of 2.1 months, or about 20%
For the 27713 zip code there were 497 homes listed at the end of August – a decline of about 8%. Only 36 homes sold during August, an decrease of just about a third. That swing in completed sales moved the adsorption rate to 13.8 months – an increase of 3.2 months
As we predicted last month, housing sales continued their declines in August – in part due to the tax credit pulling sales from July and August into May and June. As a peek at sales going forward, we’ve looked at pending sales as of the 1st of the month. Here’s the updated chart;
|
April |
May |
June |
July |
August |
| Durham County |
657 |
490 |
318 |
277 |
298 |
| 27713 area code: |
166 |
112 |
60 |
40 |
53 |
August pendings show an increase from the July bottom, which gives us some hope that the local market is finding some sort of a floor. I’m optimistic that September sales will rebound back to, or close to, July sales numbers, which will give us something small to build on going into the Fall.
Here’s the updated neighborhood information.
|
Total Available
Listings |
Total Closed
Sales |
Adsorption Rate
[in months] |
Avg Sale Price |
| Woodcroft |
81
|
8
|
10.1
[+0.3] |
$187,800
98% of list price |
| Hope Valley Farms |
64
|
5
|
12.8
[+4.7] |
$177,760
99% of list price |
| Woodlake |
21
|
1
|
21.0
[0.0] |
$217,280 95% of list price |
| Parkwood |
23
|
4
|
5.8 [-14.2] |
$149,750
98% of list price |
| Chancellors Ridge |
16
|
3
|
5.3 [-1.7] |
$243,167
96% of list price |
| Wynterfield |
13 |
1 |
13.0 |
$135,000 |
| Grandale |
6 |
2 |
3.0 [-0.5] |
$217,500
97% of list price |
| Wellington Forest |
7 |
0 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Audubon Park |
11
|
1
|
11.0
[+8.0] |
$215,000
96% of list price |
| Colvard Farms |
7
|
0
|
N/A |
N/A |
As usual, Parkwood, Hope Valley Farms and Woodcroft account for the lion’s share of the homes sold in the 27713 zip code — almost half of the sales this month. Also worth noting is that Audubon Park has fallen to earth after several months of amazing sales. Overall, however, the individual neighborhood numbers are all over the place — some up, some down. This is something we might expect from a market that is approaching a bottom. Some local markets will “bounce” a little bit faster than others would
As I said earlier, I believe this is the bottom of the dip caused by the end of the homebuyer tax credit. the numbers imply that we will see a small recovery in September followed by the normal cyclical drop associated with the Fall. We’ll see next month whether my crystal ball is still callibrated.
If books aren’t your thing, here is another opportunity to spend your hard-earned money. The Parkwood Association is holding their fall Flea Market this Saturday from 7AM to 11AM. The flea market will be at the Parkwood Shopping Center at 5112 Revere Road [where the old library branch used to be] and usually a great place to find some hidden treasures — and spend more money than you mean to.
