The last month’s analysis, I predicted a significant drop in closed sales in July as the Federal tax credit expired. While the deadline for taking the credit was extended to the end of September, the vast majority of qualifying sales were completed in June. Did the rush to close sales in June hurt our July numbers as much as I predicted?
For all of Durham County there were 2,557 homes listed for sale at the end of July – an increase of about 2%. Only 252 sales closed in July, a drop of over 45%. Last month, I predicted a significant drop in closed sales, but even I did not expect quite as large a drop. Using July figures, it would take 10.1 months to work through our current inventory. That’s a huge, and somewhat deceiving number.
For the 27713 zip code there were 540 homes listed at the end of July – again, about a 2% increase. 51 homes sold during July, an decrease of just over 60%. That swing in completed sales moved the adsorption rate to 10.6 months – again a huge and deceiving increase.
Both of those figures look really depressing taken by themselves. It’s clear, however, that the drop in July sales is a reflection of the huge increases we saw in June. As expected, most buyers tried to get their closings done in June for the tax credit money.
Last month we took a look at the number of sales pending at the end of the month, since that is somewhat of an indicator of what is ahead. Here is how those numbers look today;
|
April |
May |
June |
July |
| Durham County |
657 |
490 |
318 |
277 |
| 27713 area code: |
166 |
112 |
60 |
40 |
July pendings continued the decline of earlier months, but not quite as severly. Based on that, I would think we will see another fall in August sales, but not by as much — perhaps 10%.
Speaking of neighborhoods, here are the ones we look at each month.
|
Total Available
Listings |
Total Closed
Sales |
Adsorption Rate
[in months] |
Avg Sale Price |
| Woodcroft |
78
|
8
|
9.8
[+6.7] |
$164,125
97% of list price |
| Hope Valley Farms |
73
|
9
|
8.1
[+4.4] |
$243,177
98% of list price |
| Woodlake |
21
|
1
|
21.0
[+18.4] |
$189,900 100% of list price |
| Parkwood |
20
|
1
|
20.0
[+16.7] |
$117,000
98% of list price |
| Chancellors Ridge |
14
|
2
|
7
[+4.7] |
$299,500
97% of list price |
| Wynterfield |
29 |
0 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Grandale |
7 |
2 |
3.5 [+0.5] |
$287,450
97% of list price |
| Wellington Forest |
6 |
1 |
6.0 |
$238,000
98% of list price |
| Audubon Park |
9
|
3
|
3.0
[+1.3] |
$203,000
97% of list price |
| Colvard Farms |
10
|
1
|
10.0 |
$900,000
95% of list price |
Again, these numbers look scarier than they probably are, especially numbers like Woodlake and Parkwood where sales dropped to almost zero. Parkwood, in fact, is exactly where you would expect a strong turn, since homes in Parkwood are perfect for the first-time buyers who closed in June. Oh, and Audubon Park continued it’s amazing run as the community to watch.
The July numbers certainly support my contention that we’ve passed the peak of the 2010 housing market. Despite this month’s doom and gloom, it is worth noting that people are still buying and selling houses in numbers that are not unreasonable, and opportunities are still out there.Send me an email if you would like to hear more.
Last Friday, the Triangle Business Journal published a list of the Triangle’s ‘Most Dangerous Intersections.’ It’s a pretty handy list if you want to know what intersections to avoid while you are out and about. The worst intersection? Fayetteville Road and I-40, which sees almost one crash per week.
If you have followed the 
