google-site-verification: google46218b2b88de4bbc.html 2010 July | Bull City Real Estate

Bull City Real Estate

Real Estate in Durham with Sidetrips to Chapel Hill and elsewhere in the Triangle

Archive for July, 2010

* Buyers: What Should You Be Looking For?

Monday, July 19th, 2010

MSN has a great article up at the moment — What Kind of Home Should You Look For? [which they picked up from MarketWatch]. The article is a great overview, but I’d like to take a moment to expand on some of the points a bit.

The article tries to discuss the main ways a buyer can get a “deal” on buying their new home. I think, however, they gave too little attention to the traditional way people buy homes — making a purchase of a non-distressed property from a unhurried seller. The overall relative strength of the Triangle’s real estate market means that many, probably still most, of the homes sold in our market are sold just like they always have been ["at retail" some would say]. Since this is the baseline, it isn’t talked about much in the article, but it’s important to realize this is still how most homes are sold in our market.

The first big group this article talks about is Bank Owned Properties. It notes that the average discount on such homes is in the 20%-30% range. There is a reason for this: most of these homes were not cared for well before the bank took them over, and being vacant for extended periods of time only makes those issues worse. Even in the best of these homes, one should expect to do some painting, carpet replacement and basic maintenance catch-up. My two major additions;

  1. Bank owned properties are almost always sold “as-is.” This puts extra risk onto the buyer as any problem becomes theirs. I strongly encourage my buyers to have bank owned property inspected promptly – sometimes even before an offer is presented to the bank.
  2. Banks almost always have their own forms, which they require in any transaction. These forms usually are very slanted towards the seller. The help of a professional is always a good idea when dealing with a bank-seller.

Next up is Short Sales – a situation where a private seller is selling the home for less than what is owed, and the bank agrees to eat the difference. The issues here are simple and straightforward. The buyer will generally get a small [maybe 10%] discount on the purchase price, but they have to work through the banks process to get there. In particular, they have to accept that the process will take a long time, and that the bank may still reject everything at the end

Finally, the article talks about New Home Construction. The writer seems to feel that the time for deals on new construction has passed. I’m not convinced that is the case. During the slump, developers had plenty of land, plenty of skilled labor, and little demand. Prices normally fall in those situations, and new housing should be no exception. In fact, in some markets outside of the Triangle, new construction can be cheaper than an equivalent older home, as price drops attempt to keep people in that market.

Where we are really seeing concessions here is in upgrades and improvements. Builders are reluctant to move on the price for the frame, but those granite counter-tops, better electronics and stainless appliances are certainly easier to come by. A skilled negotiator can certainly earn his keep with strong negotiations in these areas.

I think we [the author and I] agree that deals are out there. Like anything else in life, however, getting the best deal requires work. If you’re interested in exploring any of these markets, please send me an email, and I’ll start working to find the right new home for you.

* Investors Wading Back Into The Real Estate Pond

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

Last Sunday, the Herald-Sun had four good articles about real estate investing;

The articles mainly focused on buying foreclosure property on the courthouse steps. Collectively, they are a good introduction to that aspect of investing in real estate — they are worth the read. It is worth noting, however, that buying houses at the courthouse is probably the most risky way to purchase property. Buying at the courthouse does not allow the purchaser to thoroughly inspect the property, and possibly leaves the new owner subject to superior liens [for example, an IRS lien stays with the property even after foreclosure].

As for the “hard money” article, it does a great job of making hard money lenders look like day traders. “Hard money” has its place as a means for investors to purchase a property and resell it in a short period of time [either as a "fix-and-flip," or to resell to another investor]. No one I know of, however, looks like Gordon Gecko while doing it.

Taken as a whole a whole page of the Sunday paper dedicated to real estate investing tells me that people see the market as having potential. Given Durham’s relative stability over the past few years, that could be especially true here. If you would like to hear more about how real estate investing can fit into your investment plans, please email me and we’ll get started.

* Bring Out Your Garbage . . . But Not Yet

Monday, July 5th, 2010

Just a reminder that garbage collection in Our Fair City is delayed by one day this week, due to the Independence Day holiday. So tomorrow [Tuesday], Solid Waste will collect trash according to the Monday schedule, Wednesday will be according to the Tuesday schedule, and so on. By the end of the week, everything should be caught up.

For more information, or to see the schedule for other holiday’s, here is the 2010 Solid Waste Holiday Schedule

* Federal Tax Credit Extended to September 30

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Earlier today, President Obama signed legislation to extend the deadline for taking advantage of the Federal tax credit offered to home buyers.To take advantage of the credit [$8,000 for first-time home buyers, $6,500 for most everyone else], you still have to have a contract dated on or before April 30. Now, however, you have until September 30 to complete the transaction.

Why does this matter? The National Association of Realtors has estimated that 180,000 eligible buyers were not going to complete their purchase prior to the June 30 deadline. There are several possible reasons for this. With the looming deadline, many lenders were overwhelmed with applications [I know of one lender who had an internal deadline prior to April 30 for loan applications] and were simply unable to complete their paperwork in a timely manner. Also, if a home buyer was looking at a foreclosure or a short sale, the added delays could easily push a closing  out past 60 days. Now those people have another three months to finish up the transaction.

As an added bonus, the same legislation reauthorizes the National Flood Insurance Program. this ends the legal limbo some buyers were in where they were required to purchase flood insurance, but the Feds weren’t offering it. The combination of these two measures should bring some additional stability to a housing market that could certainly use it.

* June Housing Stats For Woodcroft, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Thursday, July 1st, 2010

It’s the 1st of July — where did the first half of the year go? In any case, the sun is [really] out, so let’s see if it heated up the real estate market.

For all of Durham County there were 2,506 homes listed for sale at the end of June – again within a percent or so of last month. 468 sales closed in June, another increase about 30%. That means that it would take 5.3 months like June to work through the current housing inventory. That’s a drop of almost two months, another great improvement going into the summer.

For the 27713 zip code there were 528 homes listed at the end of June – another roughly 5% drop from May. 128 homes sold during May, an increase of close to 20%s. That huge increase in closings moved the adsorption rate to 4.1 months – another drop of a month.

Now for the bad news. As you know if you read these posts regularly, I believe a lot of the sales over the April – June period were driven by the Federal tax credit [which appears like it will be extended to allows closings past June 30]. To attempt to get a handle on that, we’ve been tracking the number of pending listings, most of which should close in the next 60 days. Here’s the new set of those numbers;

April May June
Durham County 657 490 318
27713 area code: 166 112 60

In each successive month, the number of pendings has dropped significantly. Based on the pending sales as of 7/1, I  would predict that closed sales will drop about 25 percent city-wide in July and possibly even farther in south Durham. On the other hand, a drop of even 25% would only put everything back in balance, so it’s not all doom and gloom either.

Speaking of neighborhoods, here are the ones we look at each month.

Total Available

Listings

Total Closed

Sales

Adsorption Rate

[in months]

Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft

77

25

3.1

[-7.5]

$194,290

98% of list price

Hope Valley Farms

74

20

3.7

[-0.1]

$189,910

98% of list price

Woodlake

21

8

2.6

[+0.2]

$235,344

99% of list price

Parkwood

23

7

3.3

[0.0]

$127,371

98% of list price

Chancellors Ridge

16

7

2.3

[-18.7]

$256,429

96% of list price

Wynterfield 24 1 24.0 [+13] $168,000

97% of list price

Grandale 9 3 3.0 $358,933

95% of list price

Wellington Forest 6 0 N/A N/A
Audubon Park

10

6

1.7

[+1.1]

$227,400

98% of list price

Colvard Farms

10

0

N/A N/A

Many neighborhoods were able to take part in the strong sales in June — especially Woodcroft and Hope Valley Farms. As we all know, the housing market in south Durham is largely defined by those two subdivisions. Wynterfield contines to be the “problem child” with sluggish sales continuing in June. On the other end, Audubon Park continues its amazing run of strong months. Apparently no one told them the housing market collapsed a couple years ago.

As I noted above, I believe this may be the high-water month for the 2010 real estate market. The Federal tax credit did a great job of pulling sales from the latter half to 2010 into the second quarter. the real question now may be whether that is a short-term dip, or a larger problem. Either way, we’ll be here reporting on it next month.

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