google-site-verification: google46218b2b88de4bbc.html 2010 June | Bull City Real Estate

Bull City Real Estate

Real Estate in Durham with Sidetrips to Chapel Hill and elsewhere in the Triangle

Archive for June, 2010

* Washington Sets Its Sights On Mortgage Deduction

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Last week The Hill posted an article [Ax May Fall On Tax Break For Mortgages] reporting that lawmakers in Washington were looking at scrapping the Federal tax deduction for home mortgage interest. as you might expect, this comes in the guise of deficit reduction. Last year, President Obama proposed cutting the deduction rate for itemized expenses [which includes the mortgage interest deduction and the charitable deduction] for families with incomes above $250,000

What I find interesting about this is the change in terminology. Instead of being a deduction, mortgage interest is now being called a “tax entitlement.” “Entitlement” makes it sound like something that can’t be touched, but puts a negative connotation on it at the same time.

So, where do things go from here? Some of my observations/predictions

  • The Federal government is spending like the proverbial drunken sailor. Because of that, it will be desperate of any source of income over the next decade
  • The mortgage interest deduction is a fairly large pot of money. The White House estimates it’s proposal would increase government revenues by $208Billion over the next ten years. This combination makes change almost inevitable.
  • Despite that inevitability, you won’t see Congress take action prior to the elections in November. THat would be a scary vote to make right before an election. Instead, wait for it in December when lame duck Congressmen can vote for it and people won’t notice ’cause it’s Christmas.
  • This might start with people who make over $250,000, but it won’t stay there long. Tax law is one of the places that defines “slippery slope.”

I would encourage every homeowner to keep an eye on this issue and contact their Congressmen if and when this comes up for debate. After all, it’s a difference of several thousand dollars in most taxpayers’ taxable income.

[Since we talked about terminology before, it's also worth noting in the second paragraph of the Hill article, it calls an increase in your tax liability a "savings." That is an attitude in the Government we need to address -- that all money belongs to the Government, but they allow you to keep some of it.]

* May Housing Stats for Woodcroft, Parkwood and Elsewhere in Durham

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

OK, I admit it – I can’t come up with anything catchy for this intro. Let’s go straight to the numbers, shall we?

For all of Durham County there were 2,543 homes listed for sale at the end of May – almost exactly the same number as in April. 357 sales closed in May, an increase about 40%. That means that it would take 7.1 months like May to work through the current housing inventory. That’s a drop of 3 months, which is a great improvement.

For the 27713 zip code there were 561 homes listed at the end of May – a small drop from April. 109 homes sold during May, almost double April’s numbers. That huge increase in closings moved the adsorption rate to 5.1 months – a great move towards health in the housing market

Last month we talked about the effects of the Federal tax credit. As you probably know, homes had to be under contract by the end of April, and they have to close by the end of June. You could see the effects of that in the number of pending listings, which were very inflated at the end of April. Here’s what they looked like at the end of May.

  • Durham County: 490 [April 657]
  • 27713 area code: 112 [April 166]

As you can see, that “tax credit backlog” started to shrink in May as those transactions from late March and April started to close. The pending sales numbers seem to support June closings at about the same level as May, which will do a long to eat through the backlog of listings in some of our neighborhoods.

Speaking of neighborhoods, here are the ones we look at each month.

Total Available

Listings

Total Closed

Sales

Adsorption Rate

[in months]

Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft

85

8

10.6

[-2.3]

$166,588

98% of list price

Hope Valley Farms

84

22

3.8

[-1.8]

$205,277

98% of list price

Woodlake

19

8

2.4

[-4.3]

$231,613

98% of list price

Parkwood

20

6

3.3

[-7.2]

$148,483

99% of list price

Chancellors Ridge

21

1

21

[+11.5]

$315,589

99% of list price

Wynterfield 22 2 11 $144,170

98% of list price

Grandale 9 0 N/A N/A
Wellington Forest 5 2 2.5 $315,000

97% of list price

Audubon Park

3

5

0.6

[-1.4]

$227,400

99% of list price

Colvard Farms

13

3

4.3 $833,333

96% of list price

While most neighborhoods reflected the general improvement in the market, some are still struggling. Wynterfield in particular is seeing a slow recovery from the lows of last winter. Woodcroft is posting some stronger numbers, although the large number of homes on the market is still making the numbers look worse than they perhaps are. On the other hand, the other two mainstays of the South Durham market – Parkwood and Hope Valley Farms – have returned to the market strength one would expect of them. And Audubon Park posted improvement on
its impressive numbers of April – turnover there is less than a month!

The numbers show that June should be a solid month for real estate in Durham. We’re starting to see a decline in the number of homes available, which should bring more price stability to the housing market. There certainly will be some turbulence in July and August as we transition frm a market propped up be Federal intervention, but I’m optimistic that we can get through that. Either way, we’ll be here at the start of July to let you know how things are going.

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