google-site-verification: google46218b2b88de4bbc.html 2009 December | Bull City Real Estate

Bull City Real Estate

Real Estate in Durham with Sidetrips to Chapel Hill and elsewhere in the Triangle

Archive for December, 2009

Green Shoots of Recovery in Morrisville

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

One of the signs that an economy is starting to turn around is the opening of new traditional businesses. There are always people who decide to “strike off on their own” when they are laid off, but they tend to build businesses around a consulting model. When people start opening capital intensive businesses, however, it shows a bit more faith in the economy, which is an optimistic sign.

The new Panini Warehouse in Morrisville

The new Panini Warehouse in Morrisville

The New Taco Loco in Morrisville

The New Taco Loco in Morrisville

I mention this because I was at Prime Outlets At Morrisville earlier this afternoon. If you have been a Triangle shopper for any length of time, you know that Prime Outlets is a very pale shadow of Southpoint Mall or Triangle Town Center, or honestly, a well stocked Target. It’s vacancy rate hovers around 50%, and a good number of the tenants that are there aren’t traditional mall tenants [there is a church, for example]. Imagine my surprise when I saw that there were two new restaurants in the food court. Restaurants can be a huge initial investment for the kitchen, so seeing two startups, especially in a space not known for being the hot spot, is a cause for hope.

Best of luck to both Taco Loco and Panini Warehouse in their new location!

Fannie and Freddie Find Santa Claus

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

On Christmas Eve the Treasury Department announced that it was lifting the caps that limited the amount of available capital for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Prior to Christmas Eve, each company was limited to $200 Billion of capital from the Federal government [read taxpayers]. the decision was, in the opinion of the Treasury, “necessary for preserving the continued strength and stability of the mortgage market.” Now, and through the end of 2012, the Federal government [again, that's you and me] are guaranteed to cover all losses of the two companies. You can see more of the details in this Wall Street Journal article.

What does that mean for you and me? In the short run, this will probably help hold mortgage rates down. With unlimited reserves, Fannie and Freddie will almost certainly be more aggressive in buying mortgages. This increased demand will encourage lenders to increase the supply of mortgages, which they do by either lowering rates [to encourage more good borrowers back into the market], or loosening standards [to attract more borrowers from the edges]. This is good news for borrowers, especially people looking to take advantage of the extended and expanded first-time home buyers credit.

The long run, however, is more concerning. To get access to all this new capital, Fannie and Freddie had to give the government preferred stock paying 10% dividends [preferred means the dividends are guarenteed no matter what]. They each also gave the government warrants that allow the government to purchase roughly 80% of each company. So, in effect, the Federal government owns Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And the Feds track record for running anything isn’t too great.

Hopefully we will have the best of both worlds — a well capitalized secondary mortgage market and a Federal government dedicated to allowing Fannie and Freddie to operate as somewhat  independent entities. We will certainly see what happens over the next few months.

Will New Forms Mean Less Confusion For Buyers In 2010?

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

One of the ways the Federal government is trying to reform the housing industry is by adding more structure to the closing transaction. In particular, HUD is requiring two new forms for all closings after January 1, 2010. Those new forms are;

The Good Faith Estimate. When one applies for a mortgage, the lender is expected to provide an estimate of the expenses and fees involved in getting the new mortgage. Starting in 2010 those estimates will be given on a standardized form – the Good Faith Estimate. This form lays out all the charges related to the loan and note which charges can not change, which can change a small amount, and which have no restrictions. By doing this, HUD hopes to make comparison shopping easier and to help consumers understand the loan they are applying for.

The second form is a revised Settlement Statement or HUD-1 form. The HUD-1 is given to the buyer and seller by the closing attorney prior to closing [supposedly 24 hours prior - usually about 30 minutes prior] and is the official record of where all the money comes from and where it ends up. The new form has a new section which compares the actual settlement costs to the Good Faith Estimate and a final section which spells out the details of the mortgage in relatively clear English.

Overall, these changes are pretty positive. They make good strides towards making the money trail in a closing clear and in making the estimates given by lenders mean something. They certainly aren’t perfect — for example the Good Faith Estimate doesn’t actually tell the borrower what the mortgage payment is — but I expect a couple of quick revisions will take care of the main points.

For a great review of the new forms, including some sample forms, take a look at the Virginia Association of Realtors website. Since the forms are Federal, their comments should also be valid here in NC.

[Thanks to Tina Merritt and the Trump Blog for pointing out the VAR site]

Merry Christmas!

Friday, December 25th, 2009

From all of us at Bull City Real Estate, may you have a very Merry Christmas, or whichever holiday you choose to celebrate. We’ll be back after we open and play with our presents.

Triangle MLS Releases November Housing Numbers

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

For those of you who won’t take my word for it, the triangle Multiple Listing Service released their Local Market Update for the counties that make up the Triangle. Here’s the links to individual counties;

The Cliff’s Notes version? November 2009 figures are vastly improved [in some cases double] compared to the same numbers from November 2008. The original $8,000 tax credit, however, expired in November and that really drove sales. The Year to Date numbers for 2009 are fairly similar or slightly worse than the 2008 numbers in most counties.

KB Home Takes Over Belcrest

Saturday, December 12th, 2009

Belcrest FrontIf you have driven along Fayetteville Road by Hope Valley Farms, you have seen the Belcrest development. Originally, developed by Centex Homes, Belcrest was supposed to be a community of about 50 homes with plans starting at about $225,000 and running fairly quickly towards $300,000. Centex built a model home and about a half-dozen homes, then development stalled. Earlier this month, it was announced that KB Home was taking over the development at Belcrest. According to their website, the new plan is to start with slightly smaller homes at a much lower price point. The new homes start at 1,300 sf and $175,000 and run up to 2,500 sf and $232,000 [both of those prices are base models without options].

KB Home has not put a sales office on site yet, so the best place to go for information is the website. If you want to keep up with developments at Belcrest, or want to get in on the ground floor of this new development, please email me and I’ll take care of it.

Come See My Open House in Marydell Estates!

Friday, December 11th, 2009

FrontThis Sunday from 2PM to 5PM I will be holding an Open House at 4314 Swarthmore Road in Marydell Estates. This home is a beautiful 4 bedroom home with over 3,400 square feet of space and just short of a half-acre of land. weichert-weekend-190x280Walk around the lake, take in a movie at Southpoint [just minutes away] or stay in and enjoy everything this home has to offer.

For more details on this home click here. If you would like a private showing, please email me and we’ll make that happen. With the new $6,500 tax credit for move-up buyers, this is a great opportunity to move into a great home in a great neighborhood. See you Sunday!

Durham Home Sales Report for November

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

November originally was the end of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. Did the approaching deadline [which was moved to April 30] spur sales during the month of November? Let’s see what the numbers say.

For all of Durham County there were 1819 houses listed at the end of November. 231 sales closed in November, so at that pace the currently available inventory would be sold in 7.8 months. There was 8.2 months of inventory at the end of October, so it appears that overall Durham market has stabilized a bit.

For the 27713 area code there were 322 homes listed at the end of November. 64 homes sold during November, so the current listings would be sold through in 5.0 months. This is an improvement of 1.3 months of inventory compared to October’s numbers and moves South Durham into the  buyer’s market column again. We’ll have to see how long it can stay there.

Here’s a look at the communities we’re tracking. If you would like to see data from your community, please let us know in the comments.

Total Available
Listings
Total Closed
Sales
Adsorption Rate Avg Sale Price
Woodcroft

43

16

2.7 $151,631
98% of list price
Hope Valley Farms

41

10

4.1 $183,450
98% of list price
Woodlake

5

2

2.5 $237,000
97% of list price
Parkwood

16

7

2.2 $136,900
99% of list price
Chancellors Ridge

10

3

3.3 $235,167
99% of list price
Wynterfield 16 3 5.3 $157,300
98% of list price
Colvard Farms

12

1

12.0 $865,000
96% of list price

As you can see the improvement in sales was across the board. Even Woodcroft got into the act — finally posting the recovery I predicted two months ago

What’s in the crystal ball for December? I expect the numbers to decline a bit for several reasons. First of all, the extension of the Federal tax credit means many people will not be thinking of house shopping until well after the New Year. Secondly, the Christmas holiday means there are fewer business days in December. Fewer business days equals fewer closings. So I expect a big drop in December, a slight recovery in January and continued improvement going into 2010. Durham has always been a market that showed slow and steady improvements – I’m pretty sure that won’t change now.

[Data for this post was pulled from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service on December 1 at about 7:00 AM]

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