Want to see just how a major holiday can screw up a housing market? Just scroll down a bit
Starting with Durham County – as of March 1 there were 1,442 active listings in the county as a whole. That is an increase of 148 listings, or about 11%. February saw a total of 199 closings in the whole county, which is drop of 5 closings, or just about 2.5%. We would sell through the county’s current active listings in 7.2 months at January’s rate of sales – an increase of 0.9 months.
For South Durham, there were 507 homes for sale at the end of February. That’s an increase of 93 listings, or 22%. Fifty-six homes found new owners this month, which is a drop of 15 sales, or about 21%. Again using February sales numbers, it would take 9.1 months for south Durham to sell the current inventory, which is an increase of 3.3 months.
At first glance, one would be concerned by those stats. Listings skyrocketed in February, while closings declined. Both of those trends were particularly noticeable in south Durham with 20+% swings. Before you panic, though, do a little calendar math. A normal contract takes about 45-60 days to run from acceptance date to closing date. That means a contract with a closing date of mid-February would have gone under contract in . . . mid to late December. That’s right, a drop in closings in February is an echo of our Holiday revelry. If you are skeptical, take a look at this comparison of closings during February;
|February 1-14||February 15-28|
|All Durham County||73||126|
Notice how weighted those numbers are towards the end of February [meaning contracts made in early January?]. If the entire month of February was like the last half, those adsorption rates would be 5.7 months for Durham County and 6.2 for south Durham, which is about the same as last month’s report. That’s a much nicer picture, isn’t it?
Here are some numbers from our favorite neighborhoods
|Total Available Listings||Total Closed Sales||Adsorption Rate [in months]||Avg Sale Price||
Average Price per SF
|Woodcroft||44||6||7.3 [-0.3]||$196,519||$108 [+3]|
|Hope Valley Farms||33||3||11.0 [+1.7]||$189,167||$120 [+16]|
|Woodlake||14||3||4.7 [-10.3]||$181,500||$111 [+12]|
|Parkwood||16||4||4.0 [-3.5]||$152,000||$99 [+26]|
|Chancellors Ridge||7||1||7.0 [+2.0]||$325,000||$107 [+7]|
|Audubon Park||6||1||6.0 [+3.0]||$185,000||$120 [+6]|
|Fairfield||7||3||2.3 [+0.3]||$308,500||$111 [+3]|
|Davis Park||23||2||11.5 [-11.5]||$205,891||$115 [-40]|
For some overall numbers, the average price per sf in south Durham was $107 [down $9 from January] with the priciest neighborhoods being Villas at Culp Arbor [1 sale at $185 per sf], Oaks III [1 sale at $165 per sf], and Kingsley Estates [1 sale at $136 per sf]. The lowest neighborhoods were Forestwood [1 sale at $58 per sf], Oakmont Circle [1 sale at $60 per sf], and Auburn Square [1 sale at $62 per sf]
These numbers mirror the larger area analysis – increasing numbers of listings with a drop in closed sales. One very promising thing, however, is that price per sf is steady. This time last year, we saw the market still being propped up somewhat by investors who were active over the Holidays, but were buying at discounted prices. This month’s numbers don’t show that much at all.
As the Spring market blossoms, we expect to see more sellers listing their homes, and even more buyers out there looking. If you are looking to buy or sell a home in 2014, it will pay dividends to get on the market quickly, as buyers are already out there looking for their new home. Send me an email today, and we’ll gladly get started.